The World Tries to Move Beyond Covid. China May Stand in the Way.

But rosy state media reports cannot hide a looming challenge facing Mr. Xi.

To date, the coronavirus has claimed 569 lives and infected more 777, 565 people since March 1, according to official statistics. If unchecked, the outbreak could lead to 112 million infections and nearly 1.6 million deaths between now and July, according to a study from researchers at Fudan University in Shanghai and Indiana University in the United States.

“The situation is pretty grim, and the study shows clearly the huge importance in vaccinating and boosting the elderly,” said Marco Ajelli, an infectious disease modeler at Indiana University’s School of Public Health, who contributed to the study.

Less than half of people aged 70 or older in Shanghai have received two jabs, according to the study. Across China, the number is 72 percent, a figure that health experts say should be 95 percent or higher. In dozens of cities where there have been outbreaks or partial lockdowns in anticipation of rising cases, resources have been devoted to stamping out the virus rather than to vaccinations.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/business/china-zero-covid-xi.html