What’s at stake for trade, Taiwan and Iran in Trump’s high-risk summit with China’s Xi

Dong also said the U.S.’ efforts in Iran have drawn its focus away from the Pacific, potentially creating vulnerabilities for Taiwan, a U.S. ally and major semiconductor manufacturer, that China may soon seek to exploit.

“If China were to contemplate an attack, this might be the opportune moment to do it,” the professor said.

Even if China doesn’t take that action, there are other Taiwan-related trip wires that Trump will have to avoid during his time with Xi.

The Chinese are “super focused” on “any kind of language shift on Taiwan from Trump,” Chan said.

The U.S. has a nuanced position on Taiwan: It acknowledges that Beijing believes Taiwan is a part of China, and it asserts that there is only one Chinese government. But it also maintains a strong, though unofficial, commercial and cultural relationship with Taipei, and it has kept vague about whether it would defend Taiwan if it is attacked.

Trump, who frequently speaks off the cuff in official remarks and is known for going on long, extemporaneous tangents, could risk falling off that diplomatic tightrope if he treads too far afield.

“There’s been some fears in Washington that Trump would make some kind of comment, [or] agree to a language change on how the U.S. views Taiwan’s status, that would be in line with what Beijing is hoping for,” Chan said.

China could seize on any such deviation to bolster its position toward Taiwan, he said.

Trump on Monday gave an example of how that situation could play out, when he was asked at the White House if he expects Taiwan to come up in his talks with Xi.

“Yeah, it always comes up,” he said, before immediately pivoting to Russia’s war in Ukraine, which he frequently claims would never have started if he were president at the time.

“Taiwan, I equate it a little bit to that,” he said. “You have the right president, I don’t think it’ll happen, I think we’ll be fine. I have a very good relationship with President Xi, [who] knows I don’t want that to happen.”

Trump then noted that China is geographically far closer to Taiwan than the U.S. is, adding, “there’s a lot of support for Taiwan, from Japan and from countries from that area.”

Asked if the U.S. should keep selling weapons to Taiwan, Trump said: “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion. That’s one of the many things I’ll be talking about.”

Trump added that he and Xi have gotten along well, calling him an “amazing man.”

A senior U.S. official told reporters Sunday in a call previewing the trip that the U.S. does not foresee any changes in U.S. policy toward Taiwan.

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/trump-xi-china-trade-iran-taiwan.html