Trump and Xi are set to meet in DC. Why some China watchers have low expectations

This week’s G20 finance ministers’ summit in North Carolina gave a glimpse at the daylight between the two countries: China was the only member to dissent from a joint statement, objecting to a paragraph urging “countries with excessive and persistent external surpluses” to stop distorting trade.

China also took issue with language about the Iran war, according to the Treasury Department. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday maintained that the countries have much to agree on when it comes to Iran, but said it’s “incumbent upon China” to find a solution.

The White House is planning to host a formal state dinner for Xi, MS NOW reported Wednesday, citing four sources familiar with the matter. Only Britain’s King Charles III has received similar treatment during Trump’s second term so far, MS NOW reported.

Trump’s top-down style, which favors leader-to-leader dealmaking over the diplomatic “spade work” typical of prior administrations, is also dampening expectations, said Matthew Kroenig, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

“Trump’s going to go in there and have a conversation with Xi and see what comes out of it,” Kroenig told CNBC.

They could emerge with announcements on key deliverables, he said, “But if so, it would be very top line, and then it would be up to the governments to work out the details.”

Nonetheless, the Washington summit is a major moment for the world’s top economies, which are vying for dominance in a highly unstable world marked by multiple active wars and a global economy being reshaped by artificial intelligence.

Bessent confirmed Tuesday that AI will be on the agenda when Trump and Xi meet.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales told CNBC in a statement that Trump “has a strong relationship with President Xi and had a great visit to Beijing in May, where he secured important agreements that will drive high-paying jobs and open new markets for American goods.”

“President Trump looks forward to President Xi’s historic visit to the White House in September and will always advance America’s interests,” the statement said.

U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue in late August said he held talks with his diplomatic counterparts in preparation for Xi’s state visit.

The Chinese Embassy in the U.S. did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on Xi’s upcoming trip.

Article source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/02/trump-xi-summit-iran-china-trade-elections.html