Fact-checking Trump’s claims about his 1st year back in the White House

U.S. President Donald Trump likes to throw out a lot of figures during speeches to his base that he says prove how successful his first year back in office has been. 

A rally in Iowa on Tuesday evening was no exception, where he made several wild claims including that a recent poll found that 80 per cent of Americans support his immigration enforcement campaign, while suggesting that mass deportations had led to a 78 per cent drop in crime in Memphis, Tenn., in just two months. 

But given Trump’s proclivity for spreading misinformation, we wanted to see how many of these figures are accurate and backed up by real data. Here’s a look at how they hold up under scrutiny. 

U.S. trade deficit

During his speech, Trump told the crowd that the country “had the largest trade deficit in world history” under his predecessor Joe Biden, but that his policies had slashed America’s trade deficit by 77 per cent. 

WATCH | Trump’s claim about U.S. trade deficit:

Trump claims he’s achieved massive drop in U.S. trade deficit — though data says different

At a rally in Iowa on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump boasted that he had slashed the country’s trade deficit by 77 per cent. However, recent data shows that number is actually growing.

A trade deficit occurs when a country’s imports exceed its exports.

The most recent data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for November 2025 shows the U.S. trade deficit widened by close to 95 per cent since the previous month. That’s the largest increase since March 1992, the bureau’s report says. 

‘Hundreds of billions’ in tariffs 

Speaking of trade, Trump also bragged that the United States was taking in “hundreds of billions” of dollars due to his sweeping global tariffs. 

WATCH | Trump says U.S. taking in ‘hundreds of billions’ from tariffs:

Trump brags global tariffs have generated ‘hundreds of billions’ for U.S. economy

At a rally in Iowa, U.S. President Donald Trump told the crowd that the country was taking in ‘hundreds of billions of dollars’ from his tariffs, though recent data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows it’s actually close to $150 billion US.

Last year, Trump imposed the tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law that had historically been used for imposing sanctions on U.S. adversaries or freezing their assets. 

The legality of that decision was the subject of a recent Supreme Court challenge. It’s not clear when the top court will release an opinion on the matter, but it’s expected to come soon. 

The most recent data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection says that IEEPA-related tariffs generated $133.5 billion US in estimated collections between Feb. 4 and Dec. 14, 2025. According to Reuters, the current total is estimated to be approaching $150 billion US based on continuation of the average daily collection rates from late September through mid-December. 

Wages 

The president told the crowd that Biden had cost the “typical American family” thousands of dollars (while not specifying how) but that “after one year of Trump, real wages are already up more than $2,000.”

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics released this week shows that median weekly earnings for the country’s 121.5 million full-time wage and salary workers were $1,204 in 2025, compared to $1,159 a week in 2024. 

The bureau’s data doesn’t include median annual earnings, however. It also noted that it was unable to collect data for October 2025 due to the federal government shutdown, meaning annual estimates for 2025 “are not strictly comparable” with past years.

The U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent data on median household income says it was $81,604 for 2024.

Mortgage rates 

Trump said mortgage interest rates are now at the lowest level in three years and new mortgage applications “are up 30 per cent.” For the latter, he didn’t specify over what time period. 

WATCH | Trump on mortgage interest rates, applications:

Donald Trump says White House is making it easier for Americans to buy a house

U.S. President Donald Trump told a crowd in Iowa that, under his administration, Americans are now having an easier time becoming homeowners. He added that mortgage interest rates are at the lowest level in three years and that new mortgage applications ‘are up 30 per cent,’ though he didn’t say over what time period.

As of Jan. 22, mortgage rates in the U.S. were at their lowest in three years, according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, commonly known as Freddie Mac, a publicly-traded, government-sponsored enterprise. 

When looking at mortgage applications, the Mortgage Bankers Association said as of Jan. 14, applications had increased 28.5 percent compared to the week prior.

However, a subsequent update from the association on Jan. 28 said application had decreased 8.5 per cent from the week prior. 

Huge drops in crime

Trump claimed that his administration had helped bring down crime across the country “very substantially” by “taking out thousands of vicious, horrible criminals.” 

He also claimed that crime in Memphis, Tenn., had dropped 78 per cent in the last two months, and that in New Orleans crime “is down 54 per cent in three weeks.” Under Trump’s orders, National Guard troops had been deployed to both cities on crime fighting missions.

An analysis by the Council on Criminal Justice found that the number of homicides, assaults, robberies, car thefts and seven other types of crime reported to police trended downward in 40 large American cities last year. Drug crimes increased by about seven per cent, while sexual assault offences remained unchanged, according to the study. 

The declines, the council says, are “likely the result of a complex tangle of broad social and technological changes and direct policy interventions.” 

WATCH | Trump expands use of National Guard in U.S. cities:

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After allowing National Guard troops in Washington to carry weapons, U.S. President Donald Trump discussed plans to expand the use of the military in cities across the country.

When looking at Memphis, the city’s police department said in a news release that it saw “significant crime reduction” in 2025, with a 27 per cent decrease in Part I crimes (a set eight serious, high-volume offences designated by the FBI including murder, robbery and aggravated assault). 

Looking at the city’s online safer communities dashboard, which provides crime statistics that are updated weekly, there doesn’t appear to be any consistent trend over the last two months. 

In December 2025, there were roughly 500 to 560 serious crimes reported each week. In January, the dashboard states there were 330 serious crimes reported the first week of the month, 529 in the second week and 472 in the third. 

In an email to CBC News, a spokesperson for the City of New Orleans said crime in the city “has been declining steadily for the past several years” under the leadership of superintendent Anne Kirkpatrick. 

The city’s annual violent crime statistics report found that homicides were down 14 per cent in 2025 compared to the year before (when excluding the death toll for the vehicle attack that killed 15 people last January), while fatal shooting incidents were down 21 per cent and armed robberies were down 35 per cent.

Americans’ support for immigration enforcement

Trump also said that recent polls prove Americans are on board with his immigration enforcement campaign, saying a recent Harvard CAPS Harris poll found that 80 per cent of respondents “support our unprecedented operation to deport criminal aliens.”

WATCH | What Trump said about a Harvard CAPS Harris poll:

Trump says poll shows most Americans support his immigration enforcement campaign

At a rally in Iowa, U.S. President Donald Trump told the crowd that a recent Harvard Caps Harris poll showed 80 per cent of respondents are in favour of the White House’s operation to deport ‘criminal aliens.’ In fact, the poll had asked whether respondents were in support of deporting immigrants who ‘are here illegally and have committed crimes.’

The most recent Harvard CAPS Harris poll from December 2025 asked whether respondents supported or opposed several policies. When asked about deporting immigrants who “are here illegally and have committed crimes,” 80 per cent say they were in support of it while 20 per cent were opposed. 

However, only 54 per cent of respondents said they supported deporting all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. 

The poll was conducted the first week of December, before two fatal shootings involving federal officers in Minneapolis.

It should also be noted that some January polls indicated public opposition to Trump’s immigration enforcement push. That includes a Reuters/Ipsos poll that found 59 per cent of respondents felt ICE’s efforts to deal with unauthorized immigration “go too far.”

Article source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/donald-trump-fact-check-first-year-second-term-9.7065996?cmp=rss