Conservatives confirmed Poilievre’s leadership. Can he regain the moment?

To understand the rise and stall of Pierre Poilievre, consider two polls conducted roughly three-and-a-half years apart.

In September 2022, days after Poilievre became Conservative leader, Abacus Data found that 35 per cent of Canadians were inclined to vote for Poilievre’s party, giving the Conservatives a five-point lead over the Liberals. Canadians were not exactly falling for Poilievre — 34 per cent said they had a negative impression of him and 29 per cent said they had a positive view. But the Conservative leader was at least less disliked than his Liberal rival. 

In the fall of 2022, 49 per cent of Canadians disapproved of the Liberal government and just 37 per cent approved. Forty-eight per cent of Canadians had a negative view of the prime minister of the day — Justin Trudeau — and just 33 per cent had a positive view.

Flash forward to late January 2026 and a new Abacus poll. 

Support for the Conservative Party is actually four points higher than it was in September 2022. And 38 per cent of Canadians say they now have a positive view of Poilievre.

But the share of Canadians who have a negative impression of the Conservative leader has also increased — Abacus finds 44 per cent of Canadians take a dim view of Poilievre. And the public’s view of the government has flipped.

Fifty-four per cent of Canadians now approve of the federal government’s performance and just 31 per cent disapprove. Fifty-three per cent have a positive view of the prime minister — Mark Carney — and just 30 per cent have a negative view.

WATCH | Poilievre’s convention speech:

FULL SPEECH | Poilievre pledges affordability, growth and says he’s ready to fight for Canada

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre focused on affordability, opportunity and how he would govern in a critical primetime speech to delegates gathered at the party’s national convention in Calgary.

And while 39 per cent of Canadians are still inclined to vote Conservative, if an election had been held in late January, 43 per cent of Canadians would have voted Liberal.

When Conservatives chose Poilievre in September 2022, the moment was primed for him. And from then until roughly a year ago, it seemed he was the man for the moment. 

And then the moment changed.

On the weekend that Conservative Party members recommitted to Poilievre, the hope seemed to be that the moment could still come back to him.

Poilievre stays the course with ‘hope’

The speech Poilievre delivered in Calgary on Friday night cast the Conservative leader in a slightly different light, but it did not display a whole new version of him. Poilievre still expressed his opposition to “identity politics” and “political correctness,” but he seemed a little more self-contained and more optimistic in tone — “hope” was the buzzword of his remarks.

But substantively, this was not a marked departure from the Poilievre that Canadians saw in 2024 or during the 2025 election campaign. Not that a pivot ever should have been expected. 

Poilievre would no doubt argue that many of the concerns he focused on in 2024 remain worthy of concern now — the cost of living, housing prices, crime. And Poilievre has been very clear about who he is and how he views politics, particularly when it comes to his bedrock view that government spending and regulation generally do more harm than good. 

If there is an area of concern on which Poilievre could stand to be clearer it is the question of Canada’s relationship with the United States — during last year’s campaign he seemed less inclined than Carney to see a rupture or break from the past. But to suddenly present an entirely different version of Poilievre would, at this point, be very difficult.

If Conservative Party members have decided to stick with Poilievre, the next question is whether all members of the Conservative parliamentary caucus are willing to do likewise.

Poilievre had only been leader for a few days in September 2022 when Alain Rayes decided to sit as an Independent. That departure had little to no impact on Poilievre’s standing, but a trio of announced departures last year — Chris d’Entremont, Matt Jeneroux and Michael Ma — raised harder questions about Poilievre’s leadership. 

More defections could give the Liberals a majority in the House of Commons, but also wound Poilievre enough politically that even the Conservatives who remain in the caucus would have reason to ask whether he was the right person to lead them.

Will carrying on carry the day?

For now, Poilievre seems intent on carrying on much as he has for the last three-and-a-half years — focused on affordability and housing and resource development and keen to argue that Carney, like his predecessor, has failed to deliver on his promises.

After winning 41.3 per cent of the popular vote last spring, there is a logic to that approach for Conservatives. If Poilievre can hold the Conservative vote together, and if more Canadians come to be disappointed with the Carney government, that might be enough for Poilievre to regain the moment and win power.

WATCH | Poilievre wins leadership vote by wide margin:

Pierre Poilievre wins leadership review with 87.4% approval

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre won the approval of delegates with 87.4 per cent of the vote, in what a Conservative Party spokesperson calls ‘an overwhelming majority.’

But the challenge facing Poilievre may be that much harder if the new moment that arrived last January didn’t just elevate a new prime minister, but also cast Poilievre’s leadership in a new light — a light that was perhaps captured by the New York Times headline this weekend that informed readers Canada’s Conservatives had given their “Trump-esque” leader a second chance.

In the context of this current moment, Poilievre’s populism may hinder him as much as it helps him. Abacus Data’s David Coletto wrote on Monday that about four in 10 Canadians feel that Poilievre is reminiscent of Trump — and that as long as the Conservative leader remains “highly polarizing, centre-left voters have a strong incentive to consolidate behind alternatives instead of splitting their ballot.”

Anyone who has observed the last year in Canadian politics would be hesitant to make predictions about the next year. The moment may yet return to Poilievre.

But the risk for Conservatives and their leader is that the moment that existed from September 2022 to January 2025 isn’t coming back.

Article source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-leadership-carney-trump-analysis-9.7071230?cmp=rss