NFL Week 7 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Chiefs -9.5 | Total: 48

In Week 6, Drew Lock of the Broncos (2-3) joined Colin Kaepernick as the only first- or second-year quarterbacks to win a regular season game on the road in Foxborough, Mass., since 2001. All other starters — a group that includes Patrick Mahomes — went 0-40.

It’s a fun statistic to type, but it belies the fact that Lock’s passer rating in the win was 34.9 and all of Denver’s points came on field goals. That will not work against Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-1). But the Broncos are 4-1 against the spread, and could get to 5-1 if they can lull Kansas City into a quiet victory rather than a loud one.

As for running back Le’Veon Bell, the level of attention he has received since joining the Chiefs is at least a little curious. Coach Andy Reid said Bell is not necessarily going to be active for this game. Once he’s activated, he will likely be beneath Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the team’s depth chart, and the dynamic offensive threat that his new teammates have been raving about for two weeks was last seen in peak form on an N.F.L. field in Week 14 of the 2017 season. Could his career be reborn in Kansas City? Anything is possible with Mahomes and Reid. But it is not a given. Pick: Broncos +9.5

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Patriots -2.5 | Total: 44.5

The 49ers (3-3) desperately want last week to be an indication of their quality, and the Patriots (2-3) are hoping the opposite is true for them. San Francisco opened a big early lead and cruised to a win over the Rams. New England lost at home to Denver despite Cam Newton being given several easy chances to push his team ahead. The truth for both teams is probably somewhere in the middle. The 49ers’ offense needs more from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and its defense is missing too many important players. The Patriots may not be a top contender, but they’re not “scoring just 12 points against Denver” level bad.

If running back Raheem Mostert were available, this game would have upset potential. But with San Francisco starting a third-string running back, and Newton having shaken off some rust, New England should take care of business at home. Pick: Patriots -2.5

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/22/sports/football/nfl-picks-week-7.html