Could Cincinnati Shake Up the College Football Playoff Field?

Are they really the second best team in the country?

Plenty of Power 5 believers are skeptical that any team from another conference could legitimately be ranked No. 2. Cincinnati played several weak teams to start the season, and their conference opponents are far below the quality found in, say, the Southeastern Conference.

But the team has one huge plus, a 24-13 victory over Notre Dame in South Bend. Notre Dame is otherwise 5-0, is ranked No. 13 and has defeated Wisconsin. Before the Cincinnati loss, Notre Dame was widely being propped up as a possible playoff participant.

Still, computer rankings, which take into account margin of victory and strength of schedule, tend to rate Cincinnati a bit lower. Jeff Sagarin ranks the Bearcats fifth, and Kenneth Massey only ninth. Fivethirtyeight’s model gives them a 37 percent chance of making the playoff, fourth highest behind Georgia, Oklahoma and Alabama.

And as Cincinnati continues to play within the A.A.C., its strength of schedule may fall some in comparison to major-conference teams.

Look deeper into the stats and Cincinnati has some good numbers: It is scoring 43.5 points a game, sixth best in the nation, and surrendering just 13.7, third best. Jerome Ford’s 12 rushing touchdowns rank him second in the country.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/19/sports/ncaafootball/could-cincinnati-shake-up-the-college-football-playoff-field.html