Alabama Cemented L.S.U. as a Betting Superteam

Point spreads are not destiny, of course, and sometimes, like in the title game, they reflect the opinions of ordinary bettors more than professional gamblers or football experts. “We do rate L.S.U. internally as a better team on a neutral field, but maybe not as a 6-point favorite,” Morrow said. On a game like this, which will have the most money bet all season, “we do kind of bend to public pressure.” And the public loves L.S.U.

So do some of the coaches who tried to win against the SEC champions. “I think people got to be careful at times with the spreads,” said Derek Mason, the defensive-minded coach at Vanderbilt, which lost to L.S.U. in September. “They put so much pressure on your offense to be good all the time that you can’t afford to waste possessions. If Clemson does not stay on the field, and they give L.S.U. too many opportunities, I think L.S.U. can get too far ahead.” (Before you bet your bankroll on Mason’s tip, consider that he also had kind words to say about Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney and that team’s big game experience.)

Considering how stingy Clemson’s defense is, the over/under of 69½ might seem to be absurdly high. That number, plus a point spread as much as 6 in some places, means bookmakers are expecting a score of in the neighborhood of 38-32, with L.S.U. winning. If that is the score, it will be the most points given up by Clemson in 48 games.

But while Clemson has the No. 1 defense, L.S.U. has the No. 1 offense, scoring a dazzling 49 points a game. Besides Oklahoma, L.S.U. put up 58 against Mississippi and 66 against Vanderbilt. So will great offense or great defense dominate?

“It’s the unstoppable force versus the immovable object,” Morrow said. “It’s very, very difficult. We haven’t seen a college player light things on fire like Joe Burrow. Can Clemson’s defense be the first all year to stop L.S.U.? Even Georgia gave up 37 to them.”

And, even if Clemson does win, will they really do so by holding L.S.U. to 10 or 14 points? “The only way that we anticipate that it is winnable for Clemson is if it is a complete shootout,” Blume said. “An all-out frenzy where the offenses drive the defenses into the ground. In a tight game, the L.S.U. offense is just superior.” So whichever way the result goes, there may be a lot of points on the board.

Don’t expect the total to climb even higher though. “There’s a ceiling effect,” Blume said. “It would seem crazy to go to 72. How high can it possibly go? It’s more likely to go down.”

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/sports/ncaafootball/lsu-clemson-betting-line.html?emc=rss&partner=rss