‘Uncharted territory’: How the entertainment industry is handling spread of the coronavirus
James Bond shelved. Movie theaters shuttered in China and Italy. TV shows pulled from filming abroad. South by Southwest canceled. Music festivals like Coachella pushed back.
What’s next?
The entertainment industry is scrambling to keep up in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, which shows no signs of slowing its march across the United States as infections spread to all but a handful of states. The U.S. death toll rose to 29, while fatalities worldwide neared 4,400.
In Hollywood, executives are weighing the impact of the global health crisis by the hour. The problem is multifaceted: Hollywood’s bottom line is increasingly tied to profits made abroad, where billions are being lost by Chinese cinemas lying dormant. And it takes people to make popularity happen: Major movie releases need audiences willing to sit close together in theaters; live TV shows need fans willing to squish into small studios.
Suddenly, we’re in an age where one cough could inspire panic and undo it all.
“COVID-19 has already turned the No. 2 film market in the world, China, upside down,” says Jeff Bock, senior box-office analyst for Exhibitor Relations, who predicts safety precautions will intensify in the U.S. “Theaters, sports arenas, conventions, concert halls, bars, schools – anywhere that people congregate in close proximity will likely see moderate to severe attendance decreases, depending on the rate of contagion in weeks to come.”
Studios grapple with how (or when) to roll out big movies
It was shocking until it wasn’t. Last week, producers behind the Bond franchise announced that “No Time to Die,” starring Daniel Craig, would move from its planned April release to November because of the coronavirus outbreak. (Craig still popped up on “Saturday Night Live” last weekend and a GQ cover on Monday, fulfilling promotion he had agreed to months ago.)
A new Bond movie is always an international event, pulling in hundreds of millions of dollars worldwide. But 10,000 theaters in China have been closed since January, and Italian theaters are shut down until April 3. France has begun closing select theaters, too.
It has become equally untenable for studios to sends its stars – and accompanying staffs – on planes around the globe to fan-packed events and premieres. Production is likewise curtailed, with films such as Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible VII,” set to shoot in Venice, finding themselves halted.
“We’ve never faced anything like this before,” says IndieWire editor in chief Dana Harris-Bridson. “You’re not going to push talent to do things that they think are going to put their health in jeopardy. Right now, we don’t know how high the jeopardy really is.”
Will other major releases make like Bond and clear out of the spring calendar?
So far, Disney’s live-action remake of “Mulan” (in theaters March 27) is holding on to its release date, though the live-action movie’s premiere in China was axed. On Tuesday, Sony Pictures joined the fray and announced it would move “Peter Rabbit 2” from April 3 to Aug. 7.
“Pushing Bond back was a big wake-up call for the industry, and the right move for many reasons,” Bock says. “And while Disney has repeatedly stated that ‘Mulan’ will not budge, I think companies that are responsible for large work forces need to be malleable in these situations.”
Disney seemed determined that the show must go on at Monday night’s world premiere. Director Niki Caro said onstage at the Dolby Theatre that “our hearts go out to everyone in China and the world over affected by the coronavirus, and our deepest respect goes out those working so hard to battle this disease.”
Disney is “not an organization that panics, they are not an organization that overreacts. They are very professional,” “Mulan” producer Jason Reed told USA TODAY on the red carpet. “They have a lot of information. And they make smart decisions. So I think we are in great hands.”
At the after-party, servers wore black plastic gloves and hand sanitizer was discreetly positioned by the doors.
Audiences bail on live TV
TV shows that journey around the globe are taking a time out. Last week, “The Bachelorette” canceled plans to shoot Clare Crawley’s international getaway in Italy, and “The Amazing Race” paused production after shooting three episodes in England and Scotland. TV executives are nervously eyeing live events coming up, including this month’s NCAA basketball tournament.
“I think a worst-case scenario is that it’s played behind closed doors,” NCAA’s chief medical officer Brian Hainline told the Wall Street Journal, calling a cancellation very unlikely, despite growing fears that crowds would not want to turn out for games. “It would be very, very difficult to cancel a championship and have it at any other time.”
To that end, the Democratic National Committee has announced that there will be no live audience at Sunday’s Arizona debate between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.
As many fans have begun to fear mingling in large crowds, Warner Bros.-produced shows including “The Voice,” ‘”The Ellen DeGeneres Show” and CBS’ “Mom” released new protocols Tuesday for audience members: Guests must confirm that neither they, nor members of their household, have traveled in the past three weeks to a place given a Level 3 Travel Health Notice (China, Iran, South Korea and Italy) by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. On Wednesday, Walt Disney Co. confirmed that its news and talk shows, including “The View,” “Live With Kelly and Ryan” and “Good Morning America,” will go audience-free indefinitely,
Studio audiences have been pulled from upcoming tapings of “Wheel of Fortune,” “Jeopardy,” “Dr. Phil” and “The Wendy Williams Show.” (Current episodes of “American Idol” and “The Voice” had already been taped. The next “Idol” taping with a studio audience is for the March 30 episode, and “The Voice” follows with live shows in April.)
Future TV shows are taking a hit, too: Disney shut down production in Prague on its Disney+ Marvel series “The Falcon and The Winter Soldier.” Fox, Fox News, AE and AMC canceled their March presentations to advertisers. The major broadcast networks’ May presentations in New York City are also in question, but have not been canceled.
Coachella hightails it out of April
It’s official: Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival and its country music counterpart Stagecoach have moved to October.
Dave Brooks, Billboard’s senior correspondent of touring and live entertainment, expects even more concerts and festivals to either be postponed or canceled altogether in the coming days and weeks.
The Ultra Music Festival, set for later this month in Miami, is also off, as is the first leg of Pearl Jam’s North American tour and Miley Cyrus headlining at an Australian bushfire relief concert.
The status of several other major music events – the iHeartRadio Music Awards and New Orleans Jazz Fest – remains uncertain.
“Everyone’s concerned,” Brooks says. “There’s a bit of denial and a bit of optimism in the concert industry. Concert promoters are looking at where they have big festivals planned and contingency planning where there could be cancellations.”
Festivals are hard to reschedule, Brooks says, because organizers have to accommodate the schedules of multiple performers.
Are movies still coming to a theater near you?
One thing consumers can count on: Expect more musical chairs with release dates and events.
“Right now, you’re seeing a lot of punting as precautions are evolving so rapidly,” says veteran film publicist Michele Robertson, noting how the American Film Institute moved its April 25 gala honoring Julie Andrews, 84, to early summer. “People are in uncharted territory.”
But so far, U.S. moviegoers are still going to theaters. Disney and Pixar’s “Onward” topped the box office this past weekend (although on the lower end of Pixar openings), and the Ben Affleck basketball drama “The Way Back” opened as expected. The R-rated chiller “The Invisible Man” also performed.
And with dates in flux, some studios are taking advantage of opportunities, including “Trolls World Tour,” which moved up a week to fill Bond’s now-empty Easter slot, and the family flick “My Spy,” which pushed from March to April.
But if coronavirus fears continue as we get closer to summer, major franchise releases that earn the bulk of their profits globally, like Marvel’s “Black Widow” (May 1) and the new “Fast and Furious” movie “F9” (May 22), will have to consider whether audiences will be willing to sit in crowded theaters.
That’s extra pressure for films led by women, like “Black Widow.”
Harris-Bridson cautions that every movie coming out amid the outbreak “is going to have a little asterisk next to its box office. That said, of course you want to have these films do brilliantly and prove women can do well at the box office. It potentially robs them of the opportunity to be at their best.”
As of right now, “studios will likely keep their release dates in place,” Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian says.
The National Association of Theatre Owners echoed that, telling USA TODAY that aside from theater closures in areas like China, “all theaters in the U.S. and Canada and the vast majority of movie theaters around the world remain open with strong ticket sales.”
“Conversations with other movie distributors confirm that a strong slate of global and local titles will continue to be released theatrically in all territories except those few countries most affected by the virus,” the association said in a statement sent by spokesman Patrick Corcoran. “Cinemas will remain open around the world with strong attendance, in line with local conditions, and in communication with local health officials.”
Regal Cinemas are continuing to operate normally, relayed spokesman Richard M. Grover in a statement. But the theaters are in close contact with the CDC, have educated their staff on prevention and are cleaning high contact points more frequently.
CinemaCon, an annual four-day trade show in Las Vegas at which studios preview their big films for theater owners, insists the show will go on March 30 but has said health and sanitation measures are being stepped up.
The industry has nothing to which to compare this global health crisis: 9/11 or the 2008 recession aren’t comparable, given how much streaming services have shaken up the industry since. “We’ve never seen anything like this, and we don’t know what it’s going to bring and how long it will last,” Harris-Bridson says.
If theaters were to shut for months on end and studios were to sit with high-cost films on their shelves, she wonders how the business will adapt: Could major releases go straight to in-house streaming, with studios placing their futures on new subscribers?
Should that bet pays off, the argument for exclusive 90-day theatrical runs “is gone,” she says. “It’s frightening for a lot of people because, what if it works? It’s going to be interesting to see what we learn about our own business.”
What about film festivals?
The cancellation of SXSW meant dashed dreams for many (not to mention an estimated $356 million that would have been pumped into the local economy). The festival is crucial for indie films seeking buyers and distribution, and for studio films and TV shows to grow niche audiences and word of mouth.
“Thank you (SXSW) for giving this first time female filmmaker the opening night of your festival,” Kelly Oxford tweeted, sharing a movie poster for her film “Pink Skies Ahead.” “I’m devastated the premiere won’t be at your festival, but happy public health safety came first.”
Events that are further out, such as the Tribeca Film Festival (April), San Diego Comic-Con (July) or the Cannes Film Festival (which launches mid-May in the South of France with Spike Lee as jury president), are holding steady, if keeping a wary eye on headlines.
But the situation remains tenuous: On Sunday, France instituted a ban on public gatherings of more 1,000 people, prompting Madonna to cancel two Paris shows.
Cannes, which last year launched films including Oscar best-picture winner “Parasite” and Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” is “a huge global stage,” says Robertson, and an equally important international marketplace for indie film. Losing those key sales would undoubtably slow down the rate of film production.
Some insiders insist good indie films will still rise, even if early festivals fall by the wayside this year.
“It helps sell a movie when audiences and press are all there to help raise the profile … but it can be done without a festival,” says veteran film publicist Jeff Hill, noting that “with such extreme circumstances like this virus, you really can’t argue with the decision being made to cancel or postpone.”
Films set to debut at SXSW will still have that cache, agrees distributor Marcus Hu, who acquires films through his company, Strand Releasing. “Those films will always carry the tag of having been selected for the festival. It’s a big logistics nightmare, but life goes on and probably best to be cautious, because what if something happened?”
The glass-half-full take? Streaming will be more important than ever as some audiences are stuck at home.
“The plus side,” Bock says, “is some of that money made up in alternate revenue chains, such as streaming, as many people are, quite literally, a captive audience right now.”
Contributing: Gary Levin, Bryan Alexander and Gary Dinges, USA TODAY
