2020 Box Office: Best Case Scenario Is Still Pretty Bad
The situation the world finds itself in right now has hit several industries particularly hard, but the movie business is right up there. Movie theaters all around the world have been closed for weeks and Hollywood has essentially vacated the month of June entirely as a result, delaying this year’s tentpole releases to late 2020 or 2021. With that, even in the best case scenario, the global box office is set to plummet this year.
According to a new report, in the most optimistic scenario, assuming all U.S. movie theaters reopen their doors within two months of the initial closure, revenue could top $7 billion, which would mark a 40 percent decline when compared to 2019, which saw the domestic box office total $11.4 billion. This, according to research conducted by Gower Street Analytics. More likely, theaters will stay closed for around three months and, assuming people continue to go to theaters like they used to once they are open again, revenue is expected to be in the $6.3 to $6.8 billion range.
Worldwide, things aren’t looking any better. Theaters have been closed in China for months already. As the second-largest moviegoing nation in the world, that has hurt. Most countries around the world followed suit and the box office has been a non-factor for several weeks now. The global box office hit record hits in 2019, totaling $42.2 billion. Early estimates put that number between $22 and $25 billion for 2020 as a result of the shutdown. This is, to say the very least of it, a grim scenario that could easily get much, much worse.
Several major titles such as Mulan and Christopher Nolan’s Tenet are on the books for July, but that’s if theaters reopen by then. Even if they do, surveys suggest that people will be less likely to visit movie theaters en masse as they did before the shutdown. Plus, quite a few of this year’s biggest expected blockbusters, such as F9, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Morbius and Ghostbusters: Afterlife, have all been pushed to 2021. Other big releases such as Black Widow and No Time to Die moved to November, while many others remain without new release dates.
One of the biggest issues could be the sustainability of movie theaters in general. It was recently reported that AMC Theaters may not be able to weather the storm if the shutdown goes on for too long. Other theater chains are, undoubtedly, in similar boats. And if the public does avoid movie theaters even once they are allowed to operate again, that could be seriously problematic. Not only for the exhibitors, but for the studios who rely on box office dollars to generate a return on investment for many of these expensive blockbusters. It is, at best, going to be a bumpy ride. This news comes to us via The Hollywood Reporter.
Article source: https://movieweb.com/2020-box-office-best-case-scenario/