Ohio Gov. Kasich set to jump into 2016 GOP presidential race
“Do you think I can win? It’s increasingly clear that I can,” he told about 250 Republicans at a barbecue in Georgia this spring. “This is what you get: You get direct. You get knowledgeable. And frankly, folks, when you look at the field, nobody has the experience on national security, the accomplishments in Washington and has been an executive in a big state like the state of Ohio.
“And remember, Ohio is a microcosm.”
His allies have $11.5 million on hand. A New York Times ranks his fundraising fifth among the Republicans who have disclosed their figures so far, despite his late start. In New Hampshire, site of the nation’s first primary, he is allied with John E. Sununu, a former U.S. senator and son of a former governor.
second inaugural address: personal responsibility, empathy and faith, to name a few.
“America needs to be lifted and unified,†Kasich told about 200 New Hampshire voters last week at his first town hall in the early-primary state. “We can fix it. But it’s not just going to be someone else. It’s going to be someone else and us doing our own duty.â€
Jumping into the race makes Kasich fair game for attacks he’s avoided thus far. GOP competitors will fundraise more aggressively in Ohio. They’ll critique his moderate stances on Medicaid and immigration. They’ll say he should have pursued right to work, instead of retreating in 2011 in the face of the referendum repeal of the anti-union Senate Bill 5, which limited collective bargaining by public sector workers.
Even with his income tax cuts, they’ll call him out for raising sales taxes, growing the size of the state budget, and seeking to send a disproportionate share of taxpayer money to urban schools while cutting money to some suburban schools.
When Kasich lists his accomplishments, Ohioans often respond with: “Yeah, but…â€
Now that Kasich is a candidate, national reports may start to add a question mark to his comments about helping Ohio add 350,000 jobs. (The figure doesn’t include government jobs, which fell to a three-decade low.) Or when Kasich touts his 2014 re-election victory in 86 out of 88 counties, reporters outside Ohio may notice the demise of his scandal-ridden opponent that held November voter turnout down to 40%, the lowest on record.
“Any time a politician has a free pass in an election cycle, he’s going to do well,†said David Pepper, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, in a backhanded reference to his party’s disastrous gubernatorial campaign.
And the budget Kasich balanced in Ohio? The state has a constitutional requirement to do so.
Kasich’s delayed campaign launch has elements of strategy. Theoretically, Kasich won’t have to share the political news spotlight with other candidates this week. (In practice, Donald Trump’s derogatory comments about Sen. John McCain’s status as a “war hero†are still sucking up airtime.)
Kasich is hoping the publicity helps him see a bump in his polling ahead of the first GOP debate Aug. 6 in Cleveland, since last-minute national poll performance will determine the 10 candidates who qualify for the debate. He’s polling at 1 to 2% right now
The delayed launch has also allowed him to coordinate with New Day for America, the contribution-limits-free nonprofit that must disassociate with the campaign when it launches Tuesday. The group has raised $11.5 million and has used the pre-launch time to shoot reels of footage of Kasich to use in its ads.
Once he enters the race, Kasich will head straight to New Hampshire for two and a half days of town hall meetings. That’s part of an approach he’s telegraphed since this winter. He hopes a win from the state’s pragmatic and fiscally-minded voters will boost his campaign to front-runner status.
New Hampshire’s primary voters famously include hundreds of thousands of independents, who vote for one party or the other and then change their registration back to their “undeclared†status – sometimes even before they leave the polling place. As of last month, 44% of the state’s 874,000 registered voters were “undeclared.†That’s a group Kasich hopes to win over with his moderate stances on immigration and Medicaid expansion. He’s focusing less on Iowa, whose caucus voters lean more conservative.
New Day has already spent $1.7 million on one-minute commercials in New England, giving him the first major TV ads in the region. They’ll start spending another $1.2 million-plus on Tuesday, hitting the airwaves with a new 60-second spot, according to a person briefed on the ad buy.
Because for all of his focus on New Hampshire, GOP polls from last month
“The beauty of the early states is you get on a rocket ship (with a win). It doesn’t matter, frankly, right now, what they think of me in Hawaii. What matters is what they think of me in New Hampshire,†Kasich told a small group of South Carolina business people in May. “If I go to New Hampshire and get blown out, campaign’s over. …
“There was this guy, his name was Barack Obama. He was totally unknown. That’s how it works.â€
Contributing: Jessie Balmert of Gannett Ohio and Kathleen Gray of the Detroit Free Press
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