Fact check: Obama’s numbers

Jobs, paychecks, corporate profits and stock prices have all improved since our last report on the Obama statistical record. Some highlights:

• The economy has now gained nearly five times more jobs under President Obama than it did during the presidency of George W. Bush, and the unemployment rate has dropped to just below the historical average.

• Real weekly earnings are up 1.7%, thanks in part to a plunge in gasoline prices.

• Corporate profits have nearly tripled, and stock prices have soared.

• On the other hand, the number of Americans receiving food stamps remains 45% higher than when the president first took office, and the rate of home ownership has dropped by 3.2 percentage points, to the lowest point in nearly 20 years.

• The average premium for a benchmark “silver” health plan in the Obamacare marketplaces rose only 2% this year, and consumers had more plans from which to choose. But the tax penalty for going without insurance will double.

As we do every three months, we offer here a fresh update of selected statistical indicators of what has happened since Barack Obama first took the oath of office in January 2009. Some are positive and some are not, but all are from sources we consider solid and reliable. And as usual, we caution that no single number or collection of numbers can tell the entire story.

JOBS AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Now that 2014 has gone on the books as the best year for employment growth in 15 years6,371,000 more people employed

Bush’s record suffered from a loss of nearly 4.4 million jobs in the last 12 months of his presidency, and we can’t say what the last two years of Obama’s tenure will bring.

The official unemployment rate has now dipped to 5.6%

Some scars from the Great Recession of 2007-2009 still linger. There are nearly 2.8 million people suffering from long-term unemployment

And the average number of weeks that the unemployed have been without work

PRICES AND WAGES

Consumer Prices: Consumer Price Index

Gasoline:U.S. Energy Information Administration

Real Weekly Earnings:

Food Stamps: released figures

Obama’s legacy is almost certain to include a stubbornly large increase in the food stamp rolls. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects a very slow decline in the rolls. As of its most recent “baseline” projections of the program

Home Ownership:

As of the third quarter of 2014, the percentage of U.S. householders who owned their own homes was 64.3%, according to the most recent figures from the U.S. Census Bureau

Home ownership peaked at 69.4 percent in early 2004, but it has declined 5.1 percentage points since then. Most of the decline — 3.2 percentage points — has taken place since Obama first took office.

PROFITS AND MARKETS

Corporate Profits:after-tax corporate profits

That figure is 182% higher than in the recession-wracked quarter before Obama first took office. It is also 34% higher than the pre-recession peak, which was the third quarter of 2006.

Stock Markets: Stockholders continue to do quite well under Obama. The Standard Poor’s 500-stock indexDow Jones Industrial AverageNASDAQ Composite index

OBAMACARE

More insurance companies are competing in the new ACA marketplaces. “There are over 25% more issuers participating in the Marketplace in 2015? than in 2014, according to the most recent official figures

Meanwhile, the average cost across all U.S. counties for a benchmark (second-lowest-cost) “silver” policy rose only 2%, according to the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation

The cheaper and less generous “bronze” plans rose an average of 4%, KFF said. And it found that premium changes varied widely depending on location, from an increase of 34% for a benchmark silver plan in southeastern Alaska, to a whopping 45% reduction in Summit County (Breckenridge), Colo. Also, it will pay for policyholders to shop around: A New York Timesshowed

Previously, there were indications the average premium would actually decrease. In our last report, we quoted a preliminary KFF study that showed the average premium had gone down

The ACA’s second annual open enrollment period enrollment has been brisk

There’s solid evidence that the new law has extended health insurance coverage to millions. But how manymost recent release of the National Health Interview Survey

One thing we can say with certainty is that the law’s basic tax penalty for failing to obtain coverage has doubled for 2015

The minimum tax penalty, for those with very low income, has more than tripled. It went from $95 per adult for being uninsured in 2014 to $325 for 2015. The penalty amounts have been part of the law since it passed in 2010, and the higher rates went into effect Jan. 1.

Those who were uninsured in 2014 must pay the tax penalty when they file their 2014 income tax returns, which are due by April 15. (The IRS is calling it an “individual shared responsibility payment

FEDERAL DEBT

The federal debt has already grown more during Obama’s first six years than under all previous U.S. presidents combined, at least in nominal dollars with no adjustment for inflation. The debt owed to the public stands at about $13 trillion

Total debt, counting money the government owes to itself, stands at $18.1 trillion, up 70%.

Both debt figures continue to grow, though less rapidly than during Obama’s first few years when annual deficits topped $1 trillion for four years runninga deficit of $483 billionmost recent “baseline” budget projection

ENERGY

U.S. Oil Production:U.S. produced nearly 76% more crude oi

And with domestic production surging, U.S. reliance on imported oil has been cut in half. Under Obama, as of the July-September quarter of 2014, imports were down 55%.

These changes are due mainly to advances in drilling technology rather than to any change in government policy.

Wind Solar:most recent 12 months on recordfederal tax subsidiessolar generation4.8% of all its electricity

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