Will Oil Prices Rise as the US-Iran Truce Frays? The Answer Lies With China.

The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been slowed significantly by the persistent cycle of hostility between the United States and Iran. But whether prices at the gas pump rise or fall will depend not only on how much oil flows out of the Persian Gulf but also on decisions made by China.

Typically the world’s largest oil importer, China slashed purchases this spring, reducing demand so much that it prevented oil prices from soaring even higher earlier in the war.

Now, one of the biggest questions facing the market is: When will China start buying more oil again? The longer the country holds back, the lower oil prices are likely to go. The reverse is also true. A pickup in demand from China would raise prices, all else being equal.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/business/energy-environment/oil-prices-iran-china.html