Prediction Market Betting on Drug Trials and Approvals Sparks Concern About Undermining Research

On the betting websites Kalshi and Polymarket, people can now wager on whether the Food and Drug Administration will decide this year to approve medicines for cancers of the lung, breast, pancreas and blood.

Kalshi also plans to allow users to bet on whether drug trials will succeed.

Researchers, doctors and patients said that these prediction markets threaten to undermine the drug development process. They said they worry that study results could be compromised, insider trading could go undetected and public trust could be eroded.

“Turning loose a betting market in an ongoing randomized clinical trial really is a breach of scientific conduct,” Dr. Robert Califf, who was the F.D.A. commissioner in the Biden administration, said.

For example, the critics said, participants might drop out of an ongoing study, or trial administrators could unconsciously alter their behavior, because they were discouraged by a public prediction market suggesting their study was doomed to fail.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/28/business/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-market-drugs.html