Soft Jobs Report Boosts Market Bets Fed Will Skip October Rate Increase

Officials at the Federal Reserve have coalesced over the past week around a clear message: They can afford to take their time and assess incoming economic data before moving forward with further interest rate increases. September’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday added more credence to that view.

Monthly jobs growth slowed, the unemployment rate ticked up and wage gains remained muted, signs that the labor market, while not weak, is far from overheating.

Investors immediately pared back their expectations for an interest-rate increase when the Fed gathers later this month, just days before the midterm elections. That, combined with news from the Group of 7 summit that the nations would release 100 million barrels of emergency crude oil and diesel to ease surging fuel prices, helped send U.S. government bond yields lower and stocks up.

Soaring energy prices because of choked-off oil supply from the Middle East have been a key driver of inflation this year. After the G7 news, the global price of oil dropped below $100 a barrel.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/business/economy/jobs-report-fed-interest-rates.html