Ranking all 14 NFL playoff teams by viability: Who’s best positioned to reach Super Bowl 57?
both clubs’ postseason aspirations snuffed Sunday night, albeit under different circumstances – among those that ended the year playing better football and arguably much more dangerous outfits than some of those that limped into the bracket.
But those are the breaks. Eighteen clubs are done, and 14 move forward. Here’s how we rank their viability, from least dangerous to most, as Super Bowl contenders:
He wasn’t.) The Fins lost five of their final six games, three of those defeats to teams that qualified for the postseason and the other two to the New England Patriots and Packers, who both fell just short. Outlasting the New York Jets and QB3 Joe Flacco in Week 18 hardly counts as a momentum builder.
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12. Seattle Seahawks
The Niners swept them by a collective 48-20 this season, including a 27-7 Week 2 spanking in Northern California. San Francisco has evolved dramatically since then but still projects as an especially bad matchup for a seventh-seeded Seattle team that owns the worst run defense of any playoff club and will be facing a team with a relentless array of talent in its backfield. And, from a historical perspective, Seahawks QB Geno Smith has never appeared in the postseason, and his team has lost four of five playoff games on the road – the lone exception three years ago to an Eagles team forced to play ancient backup QB Josh McCown after Carson Wentz was knocked out.
AFC playoffs will not go through Western New York, even if it doesn’t finish at Arrowhead Stadium, either. The football side of losing S Damar Hamlin means Buffalo is turning to third-team journeyman Dean Marlowe, and that could be highly problematic considering the caliber of the AFC’s playoff quarterbacks. There’s also the matter of the red-zone turnovers that have plagued QB Josh Allen. Another byproduct of losing a path to the AFC’s top seed after their game with Cincinnati was canceled is the likelihood the Bills will have to beat the Bengals and Chiefs in order to play on Super Sunday.
And then there are just the residuals from Hamlin’s collapse, hospitalization and recovery. It’s been a mentally and emotionally taxing period for the Bills. Moving forward, there’s no way to know whether Hamlin’s amazing recovery will serve as inspirational fuel or, at some point, whether the toll recent events have taken eventually prove too draining.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
They also face the plausible prospect of defeating at least two highly formidable teams (Bills, Chiefs) – both on the road in Cincy’s case – in order to get to Glendale, Arizona, site of Super Bowl 57. However, it must be noted that the Bengals beat the top-seeded Tennessee Titans and No. 2 Chiefs in Nashville and Kansas City, respectively, last year on their path to Super Bowl 56. The Bengals also seem to be drawing motivation, justified or not, from the way the NFL handled their circumstances after nixing the Week 17 game with Buffalo. But if they do get past the Bills – and Cincinnati was out to a 7-3 lead and driving when Hamlin collapsed – they’d either visit a Kansas City team they’ve beaten three times in the last year (including that 2021 AFC title game), or they’d host the conference championship round at Paycor Stadium.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
A team aiming to become the first No. 1 seed to win it all since the 2017 Eagles has its viability significantly improved by getting this week off. Beyond that, a surprising amount of questions surround a team that started 13-1. It would clearly be beneficial if they have RT Lane Johnson, DE Josh Sweat and CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson available for the divisional round. But the big question remains QB Jalen Hurts, who managed to play in Week 18 and assist Philly to a belated clinching of the NFC’s top seed – albeit against Giants backups – but hardly resembled the player who seemed to be the MVP front-runner weeks before. Maybe another two weeks off allows this hobbled team to recuperate. But how sharp will the Eagles be, especially if they draw a dangerous opponent like Dallas or Tampa Bay in their playoff opener?
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Like Philly, they have a major edge on the field as they’re only two wins away from playing in the Super Bowl. Their playoff opener at Arrowhead would most likely be against the Jaguars or Chargers, who both lost in Kansas City during the season … though the Bolts’ familiarity with the Chiefs could make that a tough matchup. Still, that’s probably preferable to seeing the Bengals or Bills in the divisional round given both beat K.C. in the regular season. But if the Chiefs reach their fifth consecutive AFC championship game, they’ll almost certainly have to take out Buffalo or Cincinnati, the former at a neutral site while knowing they lost at home to the latter with a Super Bowl berth on the line last year.
And as good as the Chiefs have been adapting to life without WR Tyreek Hill this season – salute to QB Patrick Mahomes, who’s probably going to be the league MVP for the second time – it remains to be seen how they’ll do without Hill’s explosiveness in the playoffs. In his last eight postseason contests with K.C., Hill’s impact was undeniable (61 catches for 812 yards and five TDs), and the Chiefs would never have escaped the Bills in last year’s legendary divisional game without him.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Their current 10-game win streak has been evenly split between now-injured QB Jimmy Garoppolo and “Mr. Irrelevant” rookie Brock Purdy. The last team to string together a pair of five-game runs with different QBs? The 1972 Dolphins, who won Super Bowl 7 a half-century ago to cap the only unbeaten season since 1966. A portent of good things to come for the Niners, now 28 years removed their last championship? Who knows – because, after all, no team has won the Super Bowl with a rookie passer, either.
But San Francisco is the hottest team in the league, buoyed by the midseason acquisition of RB Christian McCaffrey and further strengthened after getting RB Elijah Mitchell and All-Pro WR Deebo Samuel back from injuries. The 49ers will play their next two games at home by beating Seattle. They would draw the shaky Vikings in the divisional round should Minnesota beat the Giants but would otherwise face the Dallas-Tampa winner. Regardless, hard to imagine the Niners wouldn’t be moderately favored in any of those games … and that would probably even apply to an NFC title date in Philadelphia. And if the Eagles falter? That would mean three straight at Levi’s Stadium, where the 49ers cruised in both playoff games three years ago.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.