Carlos Correa’s free agency was MLB’s never-ending saga. Now comes the fallout.
Briefly a San Francisco Giant (for 13 years and $350 million) and stuck in New York Mets limbo over the course of two calendar years (for 12 years and $315 million) only to see those pacts evaporate due to concerns over an ankle injury, Correa, stunningly, finally, probably will return to the Twins, for whom he played in 2022.
His one year in Minnesota, for which he was paid $35.1 million, was supposed to be a “pillow contract.” Instead, Correa’s second trip through free agency turned into something of a nightmare.
Let’s try to unpack it all – with the long-term impacts for all affected parties:
Carlos Correa: Finally, a forever home?
Free agency is supposed to be a glorious time for elite players, and as a 27-year-old shortstop ready to hit the market in 2021, Correa was in the driver’s seat.
Instead, the former Houston Astros stalwart embarked on a two-year odyssey where a temporary home became permanent – but a record-setting payday passed him by.
Correa was a top-five MVP finisher, an AL champion, and seemingly in his physical prime when the Astros opted not to seriously compete for his services. No matter: Correa was inarguably the class of an elite shortstop group that was diminished by one when Francisco Lindor agreed to a 10-year, $341 million contract extension with the Mets.
a $315 million commitment out of Mets owner Steve Cohen before Camp Correa could check out of their San Francisco hotel.
Yet the Mets’ sudden cold feet – the deal hit a snag not too long after Cohen’s mai tai glass in Hawaii was drained – leaves Correa in a far less lucrative, though not disastrous, spot.
Good: He’s a shortstop again, not forced to move to third to accommodate Lindor, and will be the cog around which the Twins revolve, with elite skills and character up the middle with Correa, center fielder Byron Buxton and catcher Christian Vazquez.
Bad: He’s in a cold-weather town away from the glitz of New York, where his stridence and swagger would have been great for the game.
Good: Counting his first contract with the Twins, Correa will average $33.58 million per season, an average annual value ranking second to Lindor all-time among shortstops. His total guaranteed free agent haul: Seven years, $235.1 million, with a chance to make it 11 years, $305.1 million if four option years vest. Not too bad.
Bad: The man lost $150 million in guaranteed cash – and likely will fall short of total paydays earned by Seager, Trea Turner and Lindor, whom Correa can easily count as peers.
Twins: Good guys win?
When top baseball executives Derek Falvey and Thad Levine concocted their quick hit for Correa last March, they were lauded by Boras for their creativity and determination. Boras lavished more praise on them in November for their fantastic mutual relationship with his client. You’ll likely hear similar hosannas when the Twins re-introduce Correa sometime soon.
And while both Central divisions are filled with franchises that often cry poverty, the Twins have proven different, landing third baseman Josh Donaldson and now Correa, twice, on deals that work for them. Consider that the much bigger-market Chicago White Sox just gave out the biggest contract in their history – a five-year, $75 million deal for outfielder Andrew Benintendi.
Correa’s commitment is more than two and a half times that – and that’s on the heels of guaranteeing Vazquez $30 million. If just one of Correa’s option years vest, it will be the largest free agent signing in AL or NL Central history, topping Prince Fielder’s $215 million deal with Detroit in 2012.
Even in an offseason flush with industry cash, Minnesota is proving that so-called flyover country doesn’t have to be no-man’s land.
Mets: A moment of sobriety?
Cohen’s winter player bacchanal was at its peak when the needle suddenly came off the record as the club balked at Correa’s surgically repaired ankle. So now what?
Make no mistake, the club’s $451 million outlay to retain or attract outfielder Brandon Nimmo and pitchers Edwin Diaz, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana is significant. This club already won 101 games.
But none of them are as good as Correa, who has been a 5 to 7-win player in four of his six full seasons. They will have to convince incumbent third baseman Eduardo Escobar that, truly, they like him just fine, while pondering how much they integrate prospect Brett Baty into the mix.
Perhaps most significantly, Mets fans will have to cope with the fact that Cohen, worth an estimated $17 billion, has his limits. It’s not so much the medical red flag as it is the heavily-conditioned lowball offer that followed it. Such angst could be easily forgotten a year from now; a successful pursuit of Shohei Ohtani or Manny Machado in free agency will make the Correa Conundrum feel like a dodged bullet.
For now, should the club flounder at all in coming years while Correa flourishes, fans will be left to wonder, what if?
Giants: Island of consolation toys
When the Giants missed out on Aaron Judge, and then backed away from Correa, ensuring no elite free agents would join them, it was like a parent at the holidays seeing the last American Girl Doll vanish from the shelves.
In a baseball sense, they tried to replace Corinne Tan in the aggregate.
So here’s Michael Conforto, coming off an injury but given two years and $36 million. Hey, let’s pair reliever Taylor Rogers (three years, $33 million) with twin brother Tyler. And who wouldn’t want Ross Stripling (two years, $25 million) in their stocking?
Yet while the Giants might have maintained or even improved upon their 81-win team from a year ago, none of that will likely entice a slumbering fan base out to the ballpark. Nor is it likely enough to contend with the ceiling-less Padres or indomitable Dodgers down south.
They certainly tried, though, only to end up another chapter in this winter’s never-ending story.