Early Look at Belmont Stakes Reveals No Clear Favorite

Rombauer was an 11-1 shot in the Preakness, coming off a third-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, and bettors are not likely to be convinced that he has suddenly become the best 3-year-old in the country. Rombauer won’t be 11-1 again in New York, but lingering doubts and the depth of the field are likely to keep his odds higher than expected, perhaps 5-1 or so.

Quite a few others are also looking as if they will land in the range of 5-1, making the Belmont, the longest of the Triple Crown races, a true handicapper’s challenge.

Essential Quality was the 2-year-old champion last year after winning at the Breeders’ Cup, and he arrived at the Derby undefeated and the favorite. His fourth-place finish in Kentucky was disappointing, but the Derby often humbles great horses. Essential Quality skipped the Preakness for some rest and will be formidable in the Belmont: It’s worth noting that in his last race before the Derby he won the Blue Grass, beating Rombauer.

Malathaat is the best filly in the country, a perfect five-for-five after winning the Kentucky Oaks a day before the Derby. Fillies seldom contest the Triple Crown races, whether because of ingrained sexism or because there are plenty of lucrative races for their own gender. But when they do, they have shown they can win it. Swiss Skydiver won the Preakness last year, and the most recent filly to win the Belmont was Rags to Riches in 2007.

Also likely to contend in the Belmont are Hot Rod Charlie, the third-place finisher in the Derby, and Rebel’s Romance, who won the U.A.E. Derby in March.

But as this month has shown, a lot can happen in three weeks.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/17/sports/horse-racing/belmont-picks-triple-crown.html