Super Bowl Prediction: Why the 49ers Will Beat the Chiefs

The biggest matchup of the game, however, is San Francisco’s star-studded defensive front against Kansas City’s offensive line. Anchored on the edges by left tackle Eric Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, the Chiefs’ line allowed pressure on an N.F.L.-best 9.3 percent of dropbacks, nearly always giving Mahomes more than three seconds to survey his options downfield. San Francisco’s defense does not blitz very often, but they do not need to thanks to the speed and strength of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, and the size and power of DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead.

Like most quarterbacks, Mahomes will do his best to avoid Richard Sherman, who was rated as the top coverage cornerback in the N.F.L. by Pro Football Focus this season. Sherman may give up a step in speed to Kansas City’s Corvette-like wide receivers, but he more than makes up for that with intelligence and execution. The advantage of looking away from Sherman has been lessened, however, by the emergence of cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who has proved to be a much better complement to Sherman than Akhello Witherspoon was.

San Francisco is definitely weaker against the run than it is against the pass, and the team seemed to have a particular deficiency against mobile quarterbacks. The 49ers’ three losses came against Lamar Jackson of the Ravens, Russell Wilson of the Seahawks, and — this is not a joke — Matt Ryan of the Falcons, who ran for 27 fairly vital yards in Week 15. While the 49ers won both of their games against Arizona, the Cardinals’ rookie quarterback Kyler Murray also seemed to fluster San Francisco with an ability to use his legs to save a broken play.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/sports/football/super-bowl-pick-chiefs-49ers.html?emc=rss&partner=rss