When a Pass Rush Starts a Quarterback Controversy

All of those extra risks — against defenses that know what’s coming — mean that quarterbacks complete a lower percentage of their passes (63.0 percent to 65.7), average fewer yards per attempt (7.0 to 7.7), throw interceptions at a higher rate (2.8 percent to 1.6) and get sacked at a higher rate (7.0 percent to 5.4) when trailing than leading.

To summarize for readers whose eyes glazed over at the sight of all those decimals: Ordinary quarterbacks are likely to produce Pro Bowl-level statistics when leading and put up bench-the-bum statistics when trailing, simply owing to the tactics used in different game situations.

Quarterbacks usually attempt many more passes when trailing than leading. A stingy, turnover-happy defense can make matters even easier for an ordinary quarterback, giving him the benefit of playing with leads he did little to generate and leaving him to finish out games with efficient, high-percentage passes.

Take the Cowboys victory against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5, for example. Armstrong forced a Matthew Stafford fumble which Lawrence returned for a touchdown on the opening drive, then blocked a punt to set up a short Cowboys field goal. The Cowboys led, 9-0, before Rush completed a single pass, and he played with a lead most of the way to a 22-10 victory.

Rush has attempted just 26 passes with the Cowboys trailing this season, 57 while leading. That’s practically the inverse of the typical N.F.L. ratio. It’s easy for a quarterback to go four games without an interception when he spends most fourth quarters handing off.

Garoppolo’s splits are even more revealing: He has thrown just 11 passes with the 49ers trailing, 85 while leading. The 49ers defense returned an interception for a touchdown and forced Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield to hobble through their 37-15 victory last Sunday on a sprained ankle. Garoppolo, who has thrown only one interception this season, was free to spend another afternoon distributing micro-passes, handing off and watching the clock melt away.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/12/sports/football/cowboys-49ers-pass-rush.html