The Stats That Will Define the N.F.L.’s Wild Card Weekend

Saturday’s game between the Chargers and Jaguars promises to be a showdown of Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence, two of the N.F.L.’s most promising young star quarterbacks. It could turn into a frustrating blooper reel, however: The Jaguars led the league with 41 dropped passes, according to Pro Football Reference, while the Chargers ranked second with 40 drops.

Zay Jones led the Jaguars with 13 drops, while Christian Kirk dropped seven passes; Marvin Jones and the former Giants tight end Evan Engram added five each. Running back Austin Ekeler and tight end Gerald Everett led the Chargers with nine drops each, while the top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who were injured for much of the year, combined to drop three passes. Herbert therefore holds the advantage: He has two reliable targets at his disposal, while Lawrence has none.

The San Francisco 49ers’ Average Starting Field Position

The 49ers begin their average offensive drive at their own 30.9-yard line, the best starting field position in the N.F.L., according to Football Outsiders. Their opponents, by contrast, are stuck starting their drives at their own 25.6-yard line, the worst starting field position in the league. The 49ers therefore net a league-high 5.24 yards per series, essentially tilting the field in their favor and muscling opponents back toward their own goal line.

The 49ers also led the N.F.L. in turnover differential, with 13 more takeaways than giveaways. Their defense often gives the rookie quarterback Brock Purdy and his many playmakers the ball within easy striking distance of the end zone.

The 49ers scored touchdowns on short drives after turnovers in each of their two regular-season victories over the Seattle Seahawks, a division rival they’ll face again on Saturday. Even if the Seahawks manage to play turnover-free football, however, they may find themselves climbing uphill all afternoon.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/11/sports/football/nfl-wild-card-weekend-preview.html