The N.F.L. Playoff Picture Isn’t as Cloudy as Records Make It Seem

A first-round bye in the N.F.C. may be on the line when the Eagles visit the Cowboys on Christmas Eve. The Bengals host the Bills and Ravens in Weeks 17 and 18, matchups that will finalize the A.F.C. seeding.

Otherwise, the late-season broth is rather thin:

The Chargers host the Dolphins on Sunday night in a game more likely to generate tiresome Justin Herbert vs. Tua Tagovailoa talk-show arguments than playoff clarity.

The Giants and Commanders square off again in Week 15. While most games with playoff implications are “flexed” into prime time TV windows, the networks may flex this rematch to Wednesday at 4 a.m., pre-empting the soybean report.

The Seahawks host the 49ers on Thursday night in Week 15: As all experts predicted in the preseason, the N.F.C. West will come down to a duel between Brock Purdy and Geno Smith.

There are also plenty of games involving teams that are still alive, at least mathematically, including the Lions, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) fired their head coach a month ago and lost, 54-19, to the Cowboys on Sunday night, yet the Times’s Playoff Predictor gives the team a 1 to 2 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Their Week 15 meeting with the Vikings, lopsided and dull as it looks on paper, may well have “playoff implications” for both teams.

The N.F.L. expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020 precisely so that fans of four-win teams could dream of wild-card berths in mid-December and that Giants-Commanders ties would be consequential. The top five contenders are just so much stronger (and healthier) than the field this year that it makes the final five weeks of the season feel perfunctory.

Could we please just skip ahead to the Eagles-Cowboys and Bengals-or-Bills-or-Kansas City conference championship games?

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/sports/football/nfl-playoff-picture.html