The Grand National Is the Most Unpredictable Horse Race in the World

Moreover, these larger fences are found only at Aintree Racecourse in Liverpool, the site of the National, and used for only a few races a year. Because horses have so few opportunities to race over the larger fences, many of the horses in the field will have tried them perhaps only once before, or never. A horse who has been successful in ordinary steeplechases may turn out to be unable to deal with the higher fences. Or maybe it will handle them with ease. It’s difficult to know.

It is one of the longest races in the world.

While most championship steeplechases are from two to three miles, the National is a bit more than four and a quarter miles. Unless entrants have raced in the National before, they will be trying such a long distance for the first time.

And every yard of that distance matters. Even when a horse has cleared the final jump in the lead, and its backers have started to mentally count their winnings, there is still a quarter-mile to go, and the leader is not infrequently passed in this last stretch.

In the most celebrated incident, Devon Loch, owned by the Queen Mother and ridden by the future mystery writer Dick Francis, was 50 yards from victory when he suddenly leaped into the air and landed on his belly for reasons that remain unknown. He was passed, and his backers got nothing.

Horses take many different routes to the Grand National.

In most horse races, it is not uncommon for many of the horses to have raced one another several times in recent months, giving a good sense of which ones are better than the others. But horses come to the National from all over, making it harder to compare them. Most of them race just a few times a season.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/sports/horse-racing/grand-national-horse-race.html