NFL Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., NFL Network

Line: Dolphins -3 | Total: 47.5

At this point it is ridiculous that opposing quarterbacks are challenging Xavien Howard of the Dolphins (9-5). He is the top-rated coverage cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, but teams have thrown in his direction often enough that he is leading the N.F.L. with nine interceptions and has produced a takeaway in 10 of Miami’s 14 games.

If the Raiders (7-7) want to win this game, they should give Howard the old Darrelle Revis “island” treatment. But it shouldn’t matter much if Derek Carr (injured groin) or Marcus Mariota starts at quarterback for Las Vegas, as the Dolphins are a better team and have more motivation to win thanks to their dogfight with Baltimore for the A.F.C.’s last wild-card spot. Pick: Dolphins -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., NFL Network

Line: Buccaneers -9.5 | Total: 54

When Matthew Stafford inevitably makes a run at Drew Brees’s record for career passing yards, stretches like the final three weeks of this season will be a big reason. Stafford sustained a rib injury in Week 14; it was serious enough that he struggled to walk. He surprised everyone by starting in Week 15, and threw for 252 yards in a loss to Tennessee. Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention, and Stafford’s ribs are still extremely sore, but the team’s interim coach, Darrell Bevell, said there were no plans to shut down the veteran quarterback: “To be honest with you, I don’t think he’ll let that happen.”

So what should people expect from this game? Between hard hits from the fierce pass rush of the Buccaneers (9-5), Stafford will probably throw for 250 to 300 yards and the Lions (5-9) will lose anyway. Because a win or a tie will put Tampa Bay in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, that series of events will be acceptable to the Buccaneers. Covering the spread will be harder, though, with running back Ronald Jones out after a positive test for the coronavirus. Pick: Lions +9.5

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 p.m., Prime Video

Line: Cardinals -5 | Total: 49

Both teams should feel at home since the 49ers (5-9) have relocated to Arizona as a result of coronavirus regulations in California. That’s the most interesting subplot of a game between San Francisco’s injury-riddled team and the Cardinals (8-6), an up-and-coming squad that can clinch its first playoff berth since 2015 by winning Saturday and having Chicago lose to or tie Jacksonville. With Nick Mullens requiring elbow surgery, San Francisco will start C.J. Beathard at quarterback. Quarterback record is an overrated statistic, but Beathard has lived up to his last name with a career mark of 1-9. Pick: Cardinals -5

Sunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/sports/football/nfl-picks-week-16.html