NCAA Tournament Bracket Tips: Sorting the Good From the Bad

If your pool is one of those that awards a bonus point for an upset, that’s another matter. Now you probably want to pick all the No. 9 seeds in the first round. If the bonuses are larger — 2, 3, 5 or even 10 points — you want to start picking all the 10, 11 and 12 seeds as well, because the rewards for picking lower seeds can quickly overtake the value of more conservative selections.

In a women’s pool, however, forget about a long-shot strategy entirely. In the past five tournaments, 14 of 20 Final Four berths went to No. 1 seeds, five to No. 2s and just one to a No. 3. If you get cute, you will likely sink in the standings like a rock.

Analyze how each team matches up against its opponent.

This is another tip that requires too much time and effort for too little payoff. While some gamblers closely follow matchups, that isn’t an easy way to make money. Moreover, few of the games in the N.C.A.A. men’s tournament, particularly in the early rounds, are rematches, so it’s very hard to assess how two teams will match up against each other. And you don’t even know for sure who is playing in the later rounds.

Correctly picking the tournament champion awards the most points. So play it safe and pick the best team to win it all.

Actually, the winner of the tournament is one place where you don’t necessarily want to pick the favorite. Pool players tend to cluster heavily on one or two teams to win the tournament. Go for the third-, fourth- or fifth-best team instead, and if you are right, your bracket might be one of only a few to have chosen correctly, giving you a better chance at the overall win.

Just find an expert’s picks and copy them.

If you know nothing about basketball, this might be a tempting strategy. But it has pitfalls. First, many published “experts” know a lot about basketball or a lot about betting pools, but not both. Others, frankly, don’t know much about either.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/sports/ncaabasketball/ncaa-bracket-pool-advice.html