N.F.L. Week 10 Predictions: Our Picks for Each Game

In last week’s loss to the Jets, Bills quarterback Josh Allen appeared to injure his right elbow on Buffalo’s final drive. A few plays later, he threw a 70-yard bomb intended for Gabe Davis, the longest pass attempt in the N.F.L. in six seasons, inspiring some hope that his arm was fine.

By Monday, however, the status of Allen’s right ulnar collateral ligament, and his availability for Sunday’s game, was unknown. On Wednesday, Bills Coach Sean McDermott said Allen was day to day. The spread on the Bills’ game with the Vikings dropped precipitously from 9 points all the way to 3.5. Some major offshore sportsbooks took the game off the board entirely. On Saturday, the Bills decided not to add a third quarterback to the roster, likely meaning that Allen will play, though his status is still listed as questionable.

Football is a team sport, and every player contributes to a team’s performance. The quarterback, however, is distinctly valuable. Elite quarterbacks like Allen are worth a lot in the number of points they add (or subtract) from the point spread. We value Allen’s presence in the game for the Bills at about 6 points, not only because of his abilities, but also because of how steep the difference is between him and his backup, the 34-year-old veteran Case Keenum.

Backup quarterbacks are, by their very definition, downgrades to a team’s offense, but just how much of a downgrade is a difficult question to answer. Already this season we’ve seen some backup quarterbacks do nothing but hand off the ball (Malik Willis) and other ones lead a team to playoff contention (Jimmy Garoppolo). A team as strong as the Bills, who regularly lay two scores to their opponents, can afford a bit of a haircut on the point spread, but if Allen can’t go, the final result may very well be up to Keenum.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/sports/football/nfl-week-10-picks.html