Is the N.F.L. Over Punting?

In the primordial N.F.L. of the 1920s, it was common for a superstar like Jim Thorpe to punt on first down if his team was pinned near its own goal line. The early-down punt disappeared at about the same time as the leather helmet, but punting on fourth down in most circumstances (when not in field-goal range) became the unquestioned norm at all levels of play. That made sense at the time. In the early 1950s, N.F.L. teams averaged less than five yards per play and committed well over three turnovers per game (the 2020 turnover rate was just 1.3 per game), so there was a decent chance that the punting team would quickly get the ball back.

Offenses have grown steadily more efficient since the late 1970s. Yet most coaches remained convinced that even a fourth-and-inches conversion attempt was as nearly as risky as betting the deed to the farm on the hope of a royal flush.

Conversion attempts gradually increased as mavericks like New England Patriots Coach Bill Belichick (who has an economics degree) and then-Panthers coach Ron Rivera (whose nickname is Riverboat Ron) enjoyed success with fourth-and-short “gambles” over the last two decades. Doug Pederson, the former Philadelphia Eagles head coach, bucked conventional wisdom in Super Bowl LII with several high-risk fourth-down conversions, including the Philly Special (a goal-line trick play for a touchdown run in a typical field-goal situation) and a fourth-and-1 pass while protecting a fourth-quarter lead, which was similar to Reid’s decision on Sunday.

A few high-profile anecdotes carry more weight in the N.F.L. than a mountain of statistical research, so it’s no surprise that punt rates began dropping precipitously after Super Bowl LII. The last two weeks of playoff results will likely further sour coaches on punting when they have no other viable options.

There will always be a place for the punt on fourth-and-15 from the shadow of a team’s own goal posts. And in a league full of traditionalists who still chant mantras like “establish the run” and “defense wins championships,” no strategy is likely to disappear overnight. But gradually, coaches will begin to wonder why they are replacing their multimillion-dollar quarterbacks in high-leverage situations with the player most likely to walk through a parking lot tailgate unrecognized, and why they preach aggressiveness all week during practice, only to timidly, and voluntarily, give the ball to their opponents with the game on the line.

As soon as the tough guys and mathematicians finally agree about punting, they can start debating in earnest about settling for field goals.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/sports/football/punt-nfl-analytics.html