5 QBs could be 1st-round picks in 2023 NFL draft. Here’s why 3 probably won’t meet expectations.

As many as five quarterbacks could be selected in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday night. If that happens, odds are three won’t meet the lofty expectations of their team’s most-important pick.

During the Super Bowl era, teams have drafted five or more quarterbacks in the first round just four times. Even two of the record six quarterbacks taken in 1983’s first round fell short. 

A simple analysis of drafts during the past 25 years found more than 60% of the first-round quarterbacks haven’t been their team’s long-term answer at the increasingly important position.

Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, second and third in the 2021 draft, were selected among three other 1st-round quarterbacks. Both already landed on USA TODAY’s list of 50 biggest busts, while Trevor Lawrence, first overall, took the Jaguars to the playoffs in 2022 and earned a Pro Bowl nod.

Of all 10 quarterbacks taken in 2021, Mac Jones, selected 15th by New England, is the only other player to make a Pro Bowl. 

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Pro Bowl selections offer a relatively consistent measure of who has risen above their peers. During the past decade, about 10 quarterbacks – nearly a third of the league – have been named to the Pro Bowl annually.

USA TODAY Sports compiled a list of the 71 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL draft since 1999 and used Pro Bowls as an initial yardstick. We also factored in longevity and playoff data from Pro Football Reference. 

How often NFL teams hit on 1st-round quarterback selections

Teams have selected 763 players in the first-round of the NFL draft since 1999.

71 of those picks were quarterbacks.

17 of those picks were the first overall picks.

28 of those picks ended up as top-tier quarterbacks while …

… 39, or 58%, didn’t rise to the expectations of a first-round pick.

Four don’t have much of a track record yet.

Some had notable starts as top rookies but didn’t build on their success.

What about the other draft classes with five 1st-round picks?

While 1983 remains the year of the quarterback, half of the those selected that year are in the Hall of Fame, one earned two Pro Bowl honors and two fell short. 

The class of 1999, which featured another top-three trio, is more representative of teams’ successes, or lack there of, in drafting their franchise quarterback.

Of the three, Donovan McNabb, taken second by Philadelphia in 1999, earned the franchise quarterback moniker, while the top pick that year Tim Couch (Cleveland) and Akili Smith (Cincinnati) were both out of the NFL within five years. 

Of the other two quarterbacks picked in the first round, Daunte Culpepper (No. 11 by Minnesota) earned three Pro Bowl nominations while Cade McNown (No. 12 by Chicago) played 25 games over two seasons.

It’s not just about the first-round picks

As many as 15 quarterbacks could be drafted between Thursday and Sunday, and maybe one of the league’s next top quarterbacks will be found in later rounds.

The obvious example: Tom Brady, the best player picked in the last 25 years, or possibly ever, waited six rounds until he received New England’s fateful call in 2000. The only quarterback picked in the first round that year: Chad Pennington, 18th, by the Jets.

Perhaps 2012 might serve as a comparison to this year’s class.

While Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III drew much of the attention at the top, three others have enjoyed longer, more productive careers: Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Nick Foles, another 2012 pick, doesn’t have an impressive career stat line, but, like Wilson, has a Super Bowl ring.

Quarterbacks who might be picked in the 2023 draft

The Panthers appear likely to take quarterback Bryce Young with their first-round pick that they acquired from Chicago via trade earlier this year.

Just how soon quarterbacks C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis and Hendon Hooker are selected could depend on how much teams are willing to give up to move into the higher spots.

Some mock drafts have suggested Young, Stroud, Richardson and Levis could be selected with the first four picks, but the majority of experts predict quarterback will be selected throughout the first round.