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Five sleeper races that could upend 2026 – from Pennsylvania’s Alleghenies to New Mexico

  • December 24, 2025
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Bacon, who hails from suburban Sarpy County, won his last race against former state Sen. Anthony Vargas, D-Omaha, by less than one percentage point.

After a recent wave of GOP losses in Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Jersey, the district shapes up as a tough hold for Republicans in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since Ben Nelson retired in 2012.

5. NEW MEXICO GUBERNATORIAL RACE

While Nebraska is a red state that doesn’t often garner national attention, on the blue ledger lies New Mexico.

Topographically and culturally similar to red neighbor Texas and formerly red neighbor Arizona on the other side, the Land of Enchantment is often one that enchants the observer that looks closer at its politics.

Notably, its mountainous border with Mexico has largely kept it out of politically-contentious Trump-wall debates focused on the flatter, desert and river boundaries of its neighbors.

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US Capitol Building at sunset on January 30th, 2025  (Emma Woodhead/Fox News Digital)

While it lacks the urban population that is typical of most blue states like New York, California, New Jersey and Maryland, Republicans have been increasingly out of power there for years.

Former Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., was the last such lawmaker to represent the state in the upper chamber.

He retired in 2008 and was replaced by Sen. Tom Udall, D-N.M., whose surname is the Mountain West’s equivalent of Cuomo or Casey. The Interior Department headquarters is named after Udall’s father.

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term limited. While she was preceded by a Republican, Susana Martinez, her state has been trending more toward Democratic reliability otherwise.

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Deb Haaland, a former New Mexico congresswoman who was also former President Joe Biden’s Interior Secretary, is the biggest name in the Democratic field, while Greggory Hull, the longtime mayor of Rio Rancho, is such for the GOP.

Rep. Gabe Vasquez held off a challenge from predecessor Yvette Herrell in the 2nd congressional district, which spans the southwestern part of the state including Alamogordo and Las Cruces, in what was seen as the GOP’s best chance to make inroads again in the border state.

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Charles Creitz is a reporter for Fox News Digital. 

He joined Fox News in 2013 as a writer and production assistant. 

Charles covers media, politics and culture for Fox News Digital.

Charles is a Pennsylvania native and graduated from Temple University with a B.A. in Broadcast Journalism. Story tips can be sent to charles.creitz@fox.com.

Article source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/five-sleeper-races-could-upend-2026-from-pennsylvanias-alleghenies-new-mexico

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