Trump's 'beautiful' gun bill may be wishful thinking. Here are four pitfalls ahead

WASHINGTON — President Trump told lawmakers this week it would be “easy” to produce a “comprehensive” and “beautiful” bill that would resolve one of America’s most devastating issues: gun violence.

 “We’re going to have an amazing result,” he told lawmakers gathered inside the Roosevelt Room Wednesday, predicting a vote count “that nobody would even believe.”

But it could be an ugly road for that beautiful bill.

For starters, the gun issue is a political and cultural flash point that has paralyzed Congress for years, even in the aftermath of other mass shootings. The issue divides lawmakers along political and geographical lines, and it invokes the power of the National Rifle Association.

Plus, Trump has tossed out a dizzying array of possible legislative responses to the Valentine’s Day massacre at a Parkland, Fla., high school, including an expansion of background checks, addressing mental illness and arming school teachers against would-be attackers. He also wants to raise the minimum age for buying an AR-15 semiautomatic rifle, like the one used in Parkland, from 18 to 21, the same age for buying a handgun.

Here are four reasons why none of these will be easy to pass:

Past is prologue

The Senate took up a host of bills after the December 2012 shooting of 20 children and six staff members at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn. 

Gun-control advocates thought that deadly massacre of children would be a tipping point, and then-President Obama threw the power of the White House behind new restrictions. 

Lawmakers called for banning assault weapons and large capacity magazines and targeted gun trafficking and “straw purchasers” — people who buy guns for others.

But one bipartisan proposal, offered by Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Pat Toomey, R-Pa., seemed to have the most momentum. It was a narrow proposal to expand background checks to include private sales at gun shows and Internet sales, narrowing current exemptions mostly to transactions between family and friends.

In April 2013, all the bills were defeated.

On Wednesday, Trump seemed to suggest that could be the basis for this year’s legislation. He suggested Obama didn’t fight hard enough for it, and he would have no problem bucking the NRA — two assertions that generated skepticism among Democrats.

What will Trump do?

That is impossible to answer.

Trump on Wednesday told the lawmakers he would sign legislation that boosts the age to buy an AR-15 to 21.

“I think it’s going to be a very successful vote, and I will sign it,” he said. He added they should be “very, very powerful on background checks” and “very strong on mentally ill.”

But his comment seems reminiscent of what he said to lawmakers in January, when he told them he would sign a “bill of love” to increase protections for undocumented immigrants who were brought here as children and increase border security.

“You folks are going to have to come up with a solution,” he said then. “And if you do, I’m going to sign that solution.”

Later that week Trump rejected a immigration bipartisan bill as not going far enough. Later that month, Trump endorsed two immigration plans — one in the House and one in the Senate — that were both non-starters with Democrats. 

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Wednesday that Trump’s guns comments reminded her of his immigration comments. But she was optimistic because of the “sense of urgency” on guns.

Trump realizes passing gun legislation is the right thing to do and knows it will help him politically, said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

“The $64,000 question is, when the NRA starts coming down on him, will he resist?” Schumer said.

Scattered approaches

Trump’s meeting showcased the full political spectrum of ideas on how to respond to gun violence. On the conservative side, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., called for an expansion of concealed-carry rights. On the liberal side, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., touted a ban on “assault weapons.”

“There are a lot of different conversations going on,” Feinstein told USA TODAY Thursday. “I don’t know if you term it progress or not, but everybody is trying.”

So far, House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., has ruled out quick action on sweeping gun legislation. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has said little on the subject. McConnell hopes to take up a bill to boost authorities’ reporting to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, NICS, but first, the Senate will move to a banking regulatory reform bill, according to his office.

Democrats have said the “Fix NICS” bill doesn’t go far enough, and Trump said he wanted something “much more comprehensive” — and with a different title. “The U.S. background check bill, or whatever,” Trump suggested.

He also rejected the notion of including expanded concealed-carry, because he said it would make the larger bill impossible to pass. Democrats oppose expanding concealed-carry rights.

Schumer, during a news conference, outlined what many Democrats want: 

• Expanding federal background check requirements to include private sales at gun shows and online.

• Allowing protective orders to temporarily disarm individuals who have shown credible signs of being dangerous. At Wednesday’s meeting, Trump offered his remedy in those instances: “Take the guns first, go through due process second.”

• A debate on banning assault weapons, even though Schumer said not every Democrat would support it.

Getting the votes

Republicans and Democrats alike said Trump’s support will be key to passing any gun-related legislation. Some said he could be more of an asset than President Obama was, since gun owners did not trust Obama and worried he would dramatically restrict gun-rights.

Not so for Trump.

“There’s not a person in West Virginia who believes that you’re not going to defend their Second Amendment rights — not a person,” Manchin told Trump on Wednesday. 

The NRA spent more than $30 million on behalf of Trump’s campaign.

Trump pledged to lawmakers that he would call “whoever you want me to” to lobby for legislation, if he likes their approach.

But it’s hard to imagine the easy path Trump predicted for success in the Senate, where most legislation needs 60 votes to pass.

Even the bipartisan Manchin-Toomey background check bill failed to advance in 2013 because it only had 54 votes.

“I really believe that 60 votes — 60 percent, meaning — should be so easy.  It should be 100 percent,” Trump said.

To his comment, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., responded, “I think you underestimate the power of the gun lobby.”

Contributing: Deirdre Shesgreen and Eliza Collins.

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