New poll shows Iowans’ doubts about Romney

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Zach Boyden-Holmes

Mitt Romney’s decision not to mount a third presidential bid comes amid evidence from a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll

Romney, the two-time presidential candidate and 2012 Republican nominee, announced Friday morning he would not run again for president in 2016, ending a weeks-long flirtation.

But even as Romney’s popularity has dropped among likely caucusgoers, poll data show Iowans see him as a potentially stronger candidate than former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Both are viewed as representatives of the Republican Party’s more moderate, establishment wing.

Friday’s news came just hours after one of Romney’s top aides, Des Moines-based strategist David Kochel, threw in with Bush’s nascent campaign. His exit undoubtedly widens the lane for Bush in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus contest, said Doug Gross, a Des Moines lawyer and one of Iowa’s most prominent Republicans.

“It’s huge for Bush because they clearly would’ve attempted to attract not only similar donors but similar caucusgoers, so it’s a huge deal for him,” Gross said. “It has the most positive impact for Bush as anybody else.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may also benefit from Romney’s absence, added Republican Jim Kersten, a former state senator who joined several other Iowa powerbrokers on a 2011 mission to recruit Christie to run in 2012.

“I am strongly encouraging Governor Christie to run and hope he does,” Kersten told the Register on Friday.

But Brian Rosener, a conservative and chairman of the Woodbury County Republicans in northwest Iowa, doubted that Romney’s decision would make much difference at all. Regardless of who runs, moderates will find tough sledding in Iowa in 2016, he predicted.

“Jeb Bush-Mitt Romney moderates don’t have as big of influence or as big of grass-roots support here in Iowa. We’re more conservative, more constitutionally minded,” Rosener said. “With Jeb Bush’s support of Common Core and amnesty ideas, he’s going to come up very short in Iowa.”

A Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll conducted Monday through Thursday by Selzer Co. of Des Moines shows 57 percent of likely caucusgoers have favorable feelings about Romney — against 40 percent who view him unfavorably. That’s a decline from last October, when 65 percent of Iowa Republicans viewed him favorably and 30 percent did not.

The poll results concerning Romney have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Still, those same poll respondents believe Romney is a superior alternative to Bush across a range of issues — including that he would match up better against presumptive Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, that he would be better at creating new jobs and that he has a better vision for the future.

On issues that could be problematic for Romney, including his connections to Wall Street and his opposition to immigration reform, pluralities say they represent “no real problem” for his candidacy.

More respondents also think Romney would be a better candidate because of his 2012 defeat (47 percent) than say he should stay out of the race because of previous failure (45 percent).

Angie Frahm, a stay-at-home mom from Clarence who participated in the Iowa Poll, said she believes Romney is well-qualified to confront federal fiscal issues but questions his “values and ethics,” wondering in particular if he is sufficiently opposed to abortion.

“I think he should probably sit this one out,” Frahm said.

Romney has deep ties to Iowa from his previous presidential campaigns. He was initially declared the winner of the 2012 Republican caucus, only to lose that distinction in a recount a couple of weeks after the contest. He won the 2007 Ames straw poll during his first campaign and placed second the 2008 caucuses.

Kochel, the strategist now working for Bush, was a top aide to Romney through both cycles.

After keeping a low profile in the year following his 2012 defeat, Romney returned for campaign appearances with Iowa candidates as recently as last October, drawing enthusiastic crowds.

But like Kochel, several prominent Romney backers from 2008 and 2012 have told The Des Moines Register in recent weeks they believed he should not try a third run for the White House.

“He’s a very decent man,” former Iowa Senate Majority Leader Stew Iverson said. “We could’ve used him right now. But he blew it. It’s time to move on,”

Page County GOP activist and previous Romney supporter Elaine Christensen added that “new blood” is need in 2016.

“There’s a lot of other people out there,” she said. “I admire his morals and his family, but it’s time for someone else.”

Contrtibuting: Des Moines Register reporters Jennifer Jacobs and Josh Hafner