From New Jersey to California, voters have their say in hotly contested primaries
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USA TODAY Congressional correspondent Deirdre Shesgreen explains the high stakes of the upcoming election season.
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Voters from New Jersey to California went to the polls Tuesday in one of the biggest primary days of the 2018 election cycle, with possible surprises and upsets in House, Senate and gubernatorial races across the country.
The most closely watched contests are unfolding in California, where Democrats are on edge about a slate of congressional races that will help determine their prospects for winning a House majority come November. But vote-counting in California, where polls are open until 11 p.m. Eastern time, could be slow.
The elections appeared to be running smoothly in most places, although South Dakota officials said results in that state would be delayed because computer glitches were causing long wait times at some polling places. Under state law, returns cannot be disclosed until all polls in South Dakota have closed.
Election officials said intermittent loss of Internet connectivity caused delays in two counties, requiring some polling places to stay open later than the usual 7 p.m. local time closing.
In the South Dakota primaries, Republicans are choosing between Attorney General Marty Jackley and U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem in the governor’s race. The choice for the GOP’s congressional candidate is between former Public Utilities Commissioner Dusty Johnson, Secretary of State Shantel Krebs and state Sen. Neal Tapio.
Results will come sooner in states such as New Jersey and Iowa, which will be key territory in this fall’s battle for control of the House, as well as Alabama and Mississippi, where sleepier but still-important contests are unfolding.
Across the country, Tuesday’s primaries have highlighted tensions in the Democratic Party between progressive and establishment camps — while in many Republican primaries, the leading candidates are competing to be the most Trump-like as they woo conservatives.
Take the Republican primary in deep-red Alabama, where political analysts will be watching to see if Rep. Martha Roby becomes the next House incumbent to lose election this cycle. Roby is under fire from her GOP primary rivals for not being loyal enough to President Trump, who have reminded voters that Roby withdrew her endorsement of then-candidate Trump in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tape revealed his boasts about grabbing women by the genitals without their consent.
In California and elsewhere, Democratic candidates have turned on each other over everything from their progressive bona fides to their personal finances. In at least one California contest, the internecine attacks have Democratic leaders worried it could cost them a spot on the November ballot.
That’s because the state has an open primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. In California’s 39th Congressional District, the party favorite is Gil Cisneros, a lottery-winner-turned-philanthropist and former Navy officer. But he’s facing a stiff challenge from another millionaire, former insurance executive Andy Thorburn, as well as two other lesser-known Democrats. Â
With so many candidates on the ballot, Democrats fear voters may spread their support so thin that two of the GOP contenders emerge as the top vote-getters. That would mean no Democrat gets onto the November ballot — a possibility that exists in other California congressional districts as well.
If Democrats get shut out of House races in California, it will narrow their path to winning a House majority.
“Democrats’ route to the House majority runs through California more than any other state,†David Wasserman, who tracks House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, in a June 4 analysis of the California contests.
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Overall, Democrats need to flip at least 23 GOP-held seats. California holds the most promise for them, with seven Republican incumbents in seats that Democrat Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential race.
“The competitive seats are key to the Democrats’ hopes of taking back control of the House,†said Brad Bannon, a Democratic political consultant. “It will be interesting to see whether we end up with two Democrats, two Republicans, or one of each.â€
Bannon and others noted that Republicans could get shutout of the top-tier races California — for governor and U.S. Senate. In the governor’s race, the frontrunner appears to be Democrat Gavin Newsom, and two others — Republican John Cox and Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa — are competing for the second slot, and the right to advance to the general election.
More: California’s primary results could be delayed by crowded contests, absentee ballots
More: California primary holds promise and peril for Democrats as they seek to win House majority
In the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein is expected to sail to a first-place finish, but it’s not clear who her main opponent will be come November: Democrat Kevin De Leon, the former state Senate leader who is challenging Feinstein from the left, or one of the 11 Republican candidates in the race.
“The key question for several of these races is not who the winner is but who the No. 1 is,†said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College.
Pitney said it would be a huge blow for the California GOP if they don’t get a gubernatorial candidate on the fall ballot.
“The gubernatorial race is the flagship race,†he said. “And if there’s no republican on the ballot, it’s pretty likely that Republican turnout will take a hit (in the November election.  And that in turn could have an impact on some of the congressional races.â€
Contributing: The (Bergen County, N.J.) Record, The Des Moines Register and the Visalia (Calif.) Times-Delta, all part of the USA TODAY NETWORK, and the Associated Press.
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