Florida school shooting could be 'tipping point' in 2018 races
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Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum speaks to a crowd of students before marching to the Captiol during the March on Gun Violence rally,
Jeff Burlew/Democrat
TALLAHASSEE — Republican candidates for Florida governor have plenty to worry about if the outcry from student survivors of the Parkland high school shooting massacre turns into a powerful political movement rather than a temporary election-year radar blip.
Democrats traditionally turn out in fewer numbers in off-year elections, which has helped the Republican Party keep an iron grip on the Governor’s Mansion since 1998, when Jeb Bush first was elected. But political experts say a renewed and passionate push for gun control — sparked by the killing of 14 students and three teachers Feb. 14 at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School — could become a defining issue of the campaign and help Democratic contenders.
“The times have clearly changed,†said Susan MacManus, political science professor at the University of South Florida. “And the activism of the students and their parents and grandparents and everyone else has made this a bigger issue and a much more politically impactful issue. I think it has ramifications for any partisan race from the top of the ticket down to local races. The message is loud. And Republicans will ignore it at their own peril.â€
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Two top Democratic candidates for governor — Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and Orlando-area businessman Chris King — took part in Wednesday’s rally for stricter gun-control laws at the Capitol. King chartered buses from St. Petersburg and Orlando to help people get to the rally.
Gillum took a high-profile role, leading the March Against Gun Violence from Westcott Fountain at Florida State University to the Old Capitol. The procession of young people, from college students to out-of-town high schoolers, at one point stretched from downtown to campus. They waved signs and chanted, “This is what democracy looks like!â€
“You’re speaking for those 17 lives that were unnecessarily and avoidably snuffed out,†Gillum told the crowd of hundreds before the march began. “You’re speaking for the kids and the generation of tomorrow so that they don’t have to take the very same march that you’re taking today.â€
The other two major Democratic candidates for governor, former Congresswoman Gwen Graham and former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, did not take part in the day’s events in Tallahassee. Graham was unable to attend, her campaign said, though she visited Parkland over the weekend, meeting with law enforcement at the high school and speaking with students at a rally and Broward teachers at an emergency meeting.
Levine planned to visit Tallahassee on Monday as part of a “Rally to Tally for Gun Reform†at the Capitol. His All About Florida political committee announced it is launching a $725,000 ad buy in all of Florida’s media markets in response to the school shooting. The “We Will†ads call for “common sense†gun reform.
Kevin Wagner, political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, said it’s too early to tell whether the nascent #NeverAgain movement will mark a political turning point in the state.
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“Part of the problem is that in the moment, it seems like this could be one of the defining pivotal issues in the governor’s race,†he said. “But it’s February. And a week in politics is forever. Six months is a strikingly long time. We’ve had horrific shootings in the past, including one in Orlando, and sometimes the energy behind the political push doesn’t last as long as you think it will. Some think this one is different, and perhaps it is. But it’s really hard to know.â€
Political science experts said the issue could cut both ways — Second Amendment advocates are sure to be energized as lawmakers debate how to deal with gun violence.
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During a press conference at the Capitol Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2018, Stoneman Douglas High School junior Lorenzo Prado shares his harrowing story of being mistaken for the shooter who killed 17 people at his school on Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2018.
“One of the running themes on this issue has always been that Second Amendment and pro-gun rights supporters tend to be more easily activated on these issues,†he said. “While gun control proponents tend to have a number of issues that motivate them. It almost certainly would cause intensity on both sides of the issue. If it becomes an essential issue, you’ll see turnout increase on both sides.â€
Aubrey Jewett, political science professor at the University of Central Florida, said past mass shootings, including the slaughter of 49 people at Orlando’s Pulse nightclub in 2016, didn’t lead to change. But he said it’s possible a tipping point has been reached with the Parkland shooting.
“Democrats have been calling for more gun control … and largely they’ve been ignored in Florida,†he said. “They don’t have any power to make any changes on their own because Republicans are in power. So one would think it would probably be helpful to whatever Democratic candidates that are out there and pushing this and might hurt Republicans in the general election. But I don’t know that it will.â€
More: At White House, students call for gun control as part of national protest
More: Texas school district threatens to suspend students who take part in gun control walkouts
More: Gun control demonstrations planned around the U.S. after Florida school shooting
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Julia Salomone, 18, front row left, Lindsey Salomone, 15, front row right, Jose Iglesias, 17, second row left, and Isabelle Robinson, 17, second row right, student survivors from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, where 17 students and faculty were killed in a mass shooting on Wednesday, talk on their bus between Parkland, Fla., and Tallahassee, Fla., Feb. 20, 2018, to rally outside the state capitol and talk to legislators about gun control reform. Â
Madyson Kravitz, 16, right, and Melanie Weber, 16, students who survived the shooting at Stoneman Douglas High School, wait to board buses in Parkland, Fla., Feb. 20, 2018. Â
Camila Valladares, 9, and brother Miguel Piacquadio, 25, light a candle at a memorial outside Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., on Feb. 18, 2018, in response to a shooting at the high school Wednesday that took 17 lives.Â
Isabella Vanderlaat, 15, and Gabriella Benzeken 15, both students of Scott Beigel, the 35-year-old geography teacher who was killed during the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shootings, attend the funeral service at Temple Beth El in Boca Raton, Fla., on Feb. 18, 2018.Â
Taylor Green, 19, from right, Victoria Mejia, 15, Ashley Laurent, 20, and Ashley Hernandez, 16, get emotional while listening to speeches during a gun control rally in front of the federal courthouse in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. on Feb. 17, 2018.Â
Max Charles, second from right, 14, a student at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., speaks to members of the media after being picked up by family members at a nearby hotel, in Coral Springs, Fla. A former student opened fire at the Florida high school Wednesday, killing more than a dozen people and sending scores of students fleeing into the streets in the nation’s deadliest school shooting since a gunman attacked an elementary school in Newtown, Conn.Â
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