Doug Jones' surprise win in the Alabama Senate race just upended the GOP agenda for 2018

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Alabama senator-elect Doug Jones says his victory over GOP Roy Moore in Tuesday’s special election marks a moment for national unity. Jones said he is “overwhelmed” by his win over Moore, who did not concede and talked about a recount. (Dec. 13)
AP

WASHINGTON — Congressional Republicans were even more determined on Wednesday to notch a quick win on tax reform, and it’s no wonder: that will likely be their last chance at a major legislative victory before the 2018 elections.

Democrat Doug Jones’ astonishing win in Alabama on Tuesday leaves Republicans with an even narrower majority in the Senate and heightened tensions between the GOP establishment and the hard-right insurgency. 

Jones won’t be sworn in for at least two weeks, giving Republicans a narrow window to pass tax reform before the Alabama Democrat arrives to cast his first vote. With Jones seated, the Senate will be divided 51-to-49, a margin that leaves Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., with little room for defections within his fractious conference.

“You can’t really make any mistakes if you’re Mitch McConnell,” said David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron. “He’s going to have to thread an even smaller needle now.”

So while House and Senate Republicans rushed to announce a final agreement on their tax bill Wednesday, it’s unclear what other big agenda items Republicans will be able to tackle come January. Not only will the Democrats have an extra vote, but the 2018 midterms will put Republicans and Democrats alike on edge as they seek re-election and try to steer clear of controversial votes. 

“There’s nothing that concentrates the mind more than the thought that you might lose the next election,” said Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, the Senate’s No. 2 Democrat.

Several Democrats cast the Alabama race as a referendum on the Republican agenda, not just on GOP nominee Roy Moore, who was dogged by allegations of improper sexual conduct with teenage girls.

“The Republican brand, even in deep red Alabama, is positively toxic,” said Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. He said it should make Republicans hit the pause button and rethink their entire agenda.

But Republicans said the race was about Moore and only Moore.

“The voters of Alabama did not want a man who in his 30s was trolling shopping centers and trying to have dates with 14- and 16-year-old girls,” said Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.

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Republicans say they have a tax cut deal but Democrats want to stall until Jones arrives

Top takeaways from Doug Jones’ shocking victory over Roy Moore in Alabama

Democrat Doug Jones wins stunning upset over Roy Moore in Alabama Senate race

Even without Moore as a distraction, it could be tough for Republicans to get much done in 2018.

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said it hasn’t been easy to keep Senate Republicans in line before and it will even harder now.

“Every now and then, we have a free-range chicken that kind of goes out on its own,” he said. “Before we could lose two of those chickens and now we can only lose one.”

Steven Law, president and CEO of a McConnell-allied Super PAC, said election years tend to be slow anyway. He said he expects McConnell to focus on judicial nominations and rolling back Obama-era regulations. 

“One of his gifts is to be able to focus on what is achievable and not to waste energy on what is better left to tackle at another time,” Law said.

Johnson said he hoped Republicans would take another stab at repealing and replacing Obamacare, an issue that tied the GOP in knots for much of this year. But he conceded that could be harder now, with the Senate’s new math empowering individual senators to make or break a bill.

“Any two senators could block just about anything,” Johnson said.

Sen. Roy Blunt, a Missouri Republican and member of the GOP leadership, said the GOP’s reduced ranks could actually be a positive development because it would increase the pressure for them to stick together.

“When I was the whip in the House, the easiest whipping we ever had was when we had the smallest majority,” Blunt said, before adding “because everybody knew what they had to do.”

If there’s one senator who emerged with new power on Tuesday it was Susan Collins, a moderate from Maine who often bucks the GOP leadership. Collins was asked if Jones’ win and the now even skinnier GOP margin empowers her and other moderates.

“Let’s hope so,” she quipped.

Cohen, the University of Akron professor, said there’s a chance that Congress could reach consensus on another Trump priority, a massive spending bill to improve roads and bridges. It is an issue that generally attracts broad bipartisan support. But he said more controversial items, such as dismantling Obamacare or curbing Medicare spending, will be off the table. 

“That’s political kryptonite especially before an election,” Cohen said of the GOP’s push for entitlement and welfare reform. 

Tuesday’s election also put an exclamation point on a growing rift within the GOP, pitting hardliners against more traditional Republicans. The Alabama race was seen as a proxy war between McConnell and other GOP establishment forces and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, a hard-charging conservative populist.

The two camps went to war with each other on Wednesday over who was to blame for losing a Senate seat in an overwhelmingly Republican state. That bitter feud will be likely be on full display as the 2018 elections draw closer. 

 

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