Analysis: Trump's political losses this week could hurt his policy agenda
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After Trump’s endorsed senatorial candidate Sen. Luther Strange lost in the Alabama senate race, the President was not pleased. For more on the story here is Zach Devita
Buzz60
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WASHINGTON — President Trump is on something of a losing streak, and the Republican Party may be following suit.
After a defeat on health care and in an Alabama Republican primary race this week, Trump’s political stock is falling – and his party is dividing in ways that could cost the House and Senate majorities that are essential to the president’s legislative hopes.
“I don’t see immediate problems,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor with The Cook Political Report. “I see the potential for long-term struggles.”
Trump invested heavy political capital by campaigning for Luther Strange in Tuesday’s Republican runoff to fill the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions, who was appointed attorney general. Yet the the interim senator’s loss to anti-Republican establishment candidate Roy Moore saps some of Trump’s strength when it comes to future political battles on and off Capitol Hill.
The Strange loss on Tuesday also came just hours after Senate Republicans announced they could not wrangle enough GOP votes to move forward with an effort to repeal and replace President Obama’s health care law.
So by the time Trump left for Indianapolis, Ind., to unveil a new tax reform plan he wants Congress to pass by the end of the year, the president was seeking to revive his fortunes.
During his tax speech, the president expressed his frustrations over the failure of the latest Republican attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, saying the problem was with “a couple of people” he declined to identify. He made clear he expects legislative wins ahead of next year’s November congressional elections, including health care — and even expressed surprise that a bill wasn’t passed on his first day in office.Â
“I was hoping this would be put on my desk right after we won the election, and I’d come in and sign. But it didn’t work that way,” he said.
Read more:
RIP, repeal and replace: Republicans’ last-ditch effort on health care is dead
How Trump’s tax plan affects you, and what we still don’t know about it
Analysis: This is a major political week for Trump. But his NFL feud is overshadowing his agenda
Earlier, chatting with reporters at the White House, Trump even pledging to start negotiating with Democrats to see if there could be a bipartisan compromise on health care. He also dismissed any concerns about his forthcoming policy agenda — and said he could work well with Moore.
“I’m sure things will work out,” Trump said.
Yet Trump’s breezy confidence was in stark contrast to his remarks just last week, when the president expressed concern about what a loss in Alabama might do to him politically.
During a rally for Strange last Friday – the same event at which he launched his attack on NFL players for kneeling before the national anthem – Trump told supporters that “I’m taking a big risk because if Luther doesn’t make it they’re going to go after me.”
And as Moore rolled to victory on Tuesday night, Trump deleted his past endorsements of Strange from his Twitter account. In the hours since, there have been news reports quoting anonymous allies of Trump sniping at other Republicans over the Strange loss, particularly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who had asked the president to endorse the interim senator.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday he has “confidence” in McConnell.Â
Yet throughout the health care debate, Trump has criticized McConnell and other Republicans for failing to leverage their Senate majority to pass an alternative to Obamacare. The president has also clashed with the so-called establishment Republicans such as McConnell over trade policy and social issues.
These differences also manifested in the Alabama primary race between Strange and Moore.
Moore made the “Washington establishment” the target of his campaign, and he drew support from social and religious conservatives who also back Trump, even as the president stumped for Strange.
Trump and Republicans, Duffy said, have a rocky road ahead – now that there’s “this wedge he (Trump) has been successfully driving between congressional Republicans and and his base.”
There’s also what might be called the Bannon factor.
Steve Bannon, the former White House and presidential campaign aide who has now returned to his old job of running Breitbart News, went against Trump in the Alabama Senate race and backed Moore.
After he won, Bannon pledged to back other challengers to Republican incumbents, primaries that would have impacts on legislative activity and general elections throughout 2018.
“You are going to see, in state after state after state, people that follow the model of Judge Moore, that do not have to raise money from the elites, the crony capitalists, from the fat cats in Washington D.C., New York City and Silicon Valley,” Bannon said at a victory party for Moore on Tuesday night.
Bannon reveled in the fact that, earlier on Tuesday, incumbent Republican senator Bob Corker, a heavy favorite for re-election in Tennessee, announced he wouldn’t run for re-election.
Republicans will be vulnerable if other incumbents opt out of running in 2018, or are defeated in primaries. Some GOP members also fear that some anti-establishment candidates whose positions emulate Trump’s may be too conservative to win a general election. Even Moore is not a lock to defeat his Democratic opponent in Alabama in a special election this December.
Since Moore’s win, incumbent Republicans, some of whom have been attacked by Trump on various items, are likely to face challenges.
Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based Republican political consultant, acknowledged that Trump and his party would be in better shape if he had an Obamacare repeal and a Strange victory in hand.
But losing both doesn’t automatically harm his agenda – Moore also supports repeal and is likely to back Trump initiatives.
“Tax reform may now be more likely and it’s not clear that Roy Moore would vote that differently from Strange,” Mackowiak said. “The risk remains that 2017 ends with Republicans not passing any significant legislation, which could doom their prospects in the midterms.Â
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