Super Tuesday could answer some big questions. Like, how long is this going to go on?
Precisely one month after the opening Iowa caucuses, Super Tuesday is poised to set the course for the rest of a turbulent Democratic presidential race. The first four contests have anointed a new frontrunner (Bernie Sanders); vanquished and then revived the old frontrunner (Joe Biden), and dramatically narrowed a record-sized field. Three contenders – Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer – have suspended their campaigns just since the votes were tallied in South Carolina late Saturday.
Those departures has sharpened the sense that the Democratic contest is moving fast toward a two-person race, Sanders v. Biden, with the definition of the Democratic Party at stake.
Now the biggest primary election night of the campaign, with primaries that will determine the allegiance of one-third of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention, could provide answers to some of the most crucial questions ahead. Here are five of them.
1. Can Sanders start wrapping this up?
A very good night for Sanders, coupled with a not-so-good night for former Vice President Biden, could give the Vermont senator a head start in delegates that would be hard for anyone to catch in the contests that follow.
That sort of commanding lead would raise the risks of denying the nomination to Sanders even if he doesn’t hold the 1,991 delegates needed for a majority when he arrives at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this summer. The so-called “superdelegates,” members of the party establishment who don’t vote unless no candidate prevails on the first ballot, would have to calculate the consequences of choosing someone other than the person who won the most primaries and caucuses.
Live Super Tuesday results:Get -up-to-date primary results
President Trump is already stirring that pot, stoking the belief among many of Sanders’ backers that the Democratic National Committee tilted the 2016 contest in Hillary Clinton’s favor. On Twitter, the president called the decision Sunday by Buttigieg to suspend his campaign “the REAL beginning of the Dems taking Bernie out of play – NO NOMINATION, AGAIN!”
If Biden does well on Tuesday, though, he would be positioned to keep the delegate count close as the race moves to friendlier territory. In two weeks, on March 17, another heavyweight set of contests are scheduled, including Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio.
On Super Tuesday, the most important contest is in California, and the most important number is 15. Statewide polls show Sanders with a wide and presumably insurmountable lead there. But can Biden, and perhaps other candidates, reach the 15% threshold needed to claim a share of the delegates being allocated in the nation’s largest state?
The answer to that question may depend on the answer to this one….
2. How big is Biden’s bounce?
The firewall held. Joe Biden finished a disappointing fourth in the Iowa caucuses and fifth in the New Hampshire primary, a faltering start that made even some allies wonder if his campaign could survive. But in the South Carolina primary Saturday, he trounced Sanders by more than 2-1, winning close to half the total vote.
His decisive victory was built on his support among African-Americans, the most loyal part of the Democratic base. A majority of South Carolina voters were black, and Biden carried six in ten of them. He was boosted by his endorsement by Rep. Jim Clyburn, the dean of the South Carolina congressional delegation and the highest-ranking African American in Congress.
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Momentum from the South Carolina win has helped Biden land a string of endorsements from current and former Democratic officials, now that there seems to be a bandwagon to jump on. Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was one of them Monday.
The bounce could also help Biden get over 15% in California; statewide polls before the South Carolina primary showed him hovering just above and below that threshold. The impact might well be even greater in other states in the South with sizable black populations. Neighboring North Carolina and Tennessee vote on Super Tuesday, as does Alabama, Arkansas and Virginia.
A good night for Biden in March increases the possibility of a brokered convention in July. If that happens, it would be the first time since 1952 in either party that the presidential nominee wasn’t chosen on the first ballot.
3. Who goes away?
For former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Super Tuesday is the first time he’ll actually be on a ballot, although he is hardly unfamiliar. He’s spent more on TV advertising than any presidential candidate in history, all of it from his own fortune.
But money will only go so far in buying love, or votes. Bloomberg’s performance in the first two debates he participated in were widely panned. And Biden’s revival has raised an existential question for Bloomberg, who said he entered the race to provide a moderate alternative who would have a better chance than Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, of defeating Trump in November.
With Biden’s candidacy revived in South Carolina, though, that justification may become less credible. “I am going to stay right to the bitter end,” Bloomberg said on MSNBC Thursday, but he added a hedge: “as long as I have a chance.”
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If Bloomberg doesn’t come on strong in the Super Tuesday contests, he will face growing pressure by establishment Democrats to get behind Biden. Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, suspended his campaign Sunday, citing a similar argument. Klobuchar dropped out Tuesday and endorsed Biden.
Then there’s Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whose liberal policies are more in line with Sanders than Biden. She’s competing in her home state Tuesday, but statewide polls show Sanders leading there.
Losing your home state can be awkward for a presidential contender. Just ask Sen. Marco Rubio, the most recent example. He suspended his 2016 bid for the Republican nomination on the same day he finished a distant second to Donald Trump in Florida.
4. Who shows up?
The Super Tuesday primaries look like America when it comes to the demographics of the voters. That’s no surprise in a set of contests that cross the country, from Maine to California. States in the South, the West, the Midwest and New England will be voting.
An analysis by demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution shows how much more representative the Super Tuesday states are than the ones that hosted the first four contests. As a group, the early states were whiter, older and more rural that the rest of the country. The Super Tuesday states are closer to the national average in age, in the proportion who live in major metropolitan areas, and in race and ethnicity.
Some Democratic strategists were concerned after turnout in Iowa was down from 2008, when excitement about Barack Obama helped eventually propel him to the White House. But in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, turnout beat the records set in 2008.
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Biden has shown strength among African Americans, among older voters, among moderates. Sanders has shown strength among Latinos, among young voters, among liberals.
One big test for winning the White House is the ability of a candidate to turn out his or her supporters – a source of strength for Trump in 2016, for instance. The diversity of the Super Tuesday states will be the first broad test of which voters are enthusiastic enough to actually show up at the polls, and for which contenders.
5. Where does it end?
It is possible, even likely, that the Democratic nomination will be fiercely contested right up to the end of the primary season. Say hello to Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, the last states slated to hold primaries, on June 2, along with the District of Columbia.
Or even the very last contest, the caucuses on June 6 in …. the U.S. Virgin Islands. Residents in the territory are U.S. citizens but can’t vote for president in November. But they can send seven delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
Where every vote may matter.
