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Joe Biden leads Donald Trump, 48% to 43% in key battleground state of Wisconsin: Marquette Poll

  • October 28, 2020
President Donald Trump, left, and former Vice President Joe Biden, right

Democrat Joe Biden holds a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to Wednesday’s Marquette University Law School Poll.   

Biden is backed by 48% of likely Wisconsin voters while Trump is supported by 43%.

Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen is at 2%, while 8% say they’re either undecided, won’t reveal their preference or won’t vote.  

Marquette’s final survey before Tuesday’s vote was in line with its polling throughout the campaign season.  

Since May, Biden’s lead over Trump has fluctuated between 4 and 6 points in Wisconsin.

The survey of 806 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3%.

Poll director Charles Franklin said under a model of higher voter turnout, Biden leads Trump by 4 points, 47% to 43%. Under a lower turnout model, Biden’s lead drops to 3 points, 48% to 45%.  

But keep in mind polls are not predictions. They’re snapshots. And the electorate can still move decisively in the closing stages of a race.

Four years ago in the final pre-election survey, the Marquette Poll showed Hillary Clinton 6 points ahead of Trump.

Trump went on to narrowly win Wisconsin and claim the White House.

The president’s travel in the last two weeks shows his campaign is still making a strong bid for Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes. Trump has held large-scale rallies in Janesville, Waukesha and West Salem and will return for another rally Friday at Green Bay Austin Straubel International Airport.

Meanwhile, Biden is scheduled to visit Wisconsin Friday, his third trip to the state during the campaign.

In the Marquette Poll, 39% of respondents expect Trump to win the race, while 46% expect Biden to win. 

Seventy percent of voters are either very confident or somewhat confident that ballots will be accurately cast and counted, while 29% are not.

“There is a greater deal of misgivings among Republicans,” Franklin said.  

Forty-one percent of respondents say they have already voted. Of those, 64% say they voted for Biden, 25% for Trump, 2% for Jorgensen and about 9% declined to say how they voted.

Among likely voters who say they haven’t voted, 35% support Biden, 56% support Trump and 3% back Biden. 

Trump is viewed favorably by 44% of respondents and unfavorably by 54%. Biden’s favorable is at 49% to 46% unfavorable.

Trump receives 51% approval for his handling of the economy but only 40% approve of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Vice President Mike Pence is viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 45% while Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 41%. 

On the coronavirus, 57% say they’re either very worried or somewhat worried of contracting COVID-19, while 39% say they were not very worried or not at all worried.

“A sizable 1 in 5 in the state think this is not something for them to worry about,” Franklin said.

Sixty-four percent say they always wear a face mask when they’re out in public, 20% say they wear it most of the time, while 12% say they wear a mask only now and then and 3% say they never wear one.

Fifty-two percent say they’re comfortable eating inside at a restaurant and 47% are uncomfortable.

Asked about the shutdown of schools and businesses in the state during the spring, 68% say the decision was an appropriate reaction, while 26% say it was an overreaction.

On the confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, 48% say if they were in the U.S. Senate they would have voted to confirm her, while 38% say they would not.

Job approval rating for the Wisconsin state Legislature has dropped significantly. Just 36% approve of the job the Legislature is doing compared to 50% disapproval. In May, 46% approved of the Legislature and 40% disapproved.

Gov. Tony Evers job approval is at 50% to 43% disapproval.

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