World Cup Final Drives Billions in Bets on Kalshi and Polymarket

When Argentina and Spain take the field on Sunday for the World Cup final, more than $5.55 billion will be riding on the winner on the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.

People are also betting millions on who wins third place and the Golden Boot award for top scorer. Others are wagering on what the announcers might say or whether it will be the final tournament for the Argentina team captain, Lionel Messi.

The event has helped drive new users to the prediction markets, which have grown rapidly and transformed into a cultural phenomenon in recent months. The sites allow users to wager on the outcome of just about anything, from elections to details about Taylor Swift’s wedding to the winner of the reality-TV show “Survivor.”

Prediction market users are poised to make the World Cup the largest gambling event in history, analysts said. In June, total wagers on the platforms topped $50 billion for the first time, much of it driven by the soccer tournament, according to data from Dune Analytics, a crypto data tracker. That was up from about $2 billion the same month a year ago.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/18/business/world-cup-kalshi-polymarket.html