Ukraine Is Biden’s Defining Issue, and His Biggest Economic Challenge

Mr. Biden insists the American economy, with a labor market that continues to add jobs at a hot pace, is well positioned to endure any new drags on the global economy from the invasion. His aides note the United States, as a large energy producer, is not suffering like Europe from a lack of access to Russian oil or natural gas.

He has faced little domestic political pressure over his Ukraine decisions thus far. While the war has filled newscasts and commanded much of Mr. Biden’s time, including frequent speeches, it has not yet become an electoral wedge issue. Ukraine did not make the list of the top 60 topics of campaign advertisements nationwide in the midterm election cycle, according to data from AdImpact.

But should Mr. Biden seek re-election, the economics of the war could play a large role. It could push up gas prices, which tend to affect the public’s view of the president. Stubbornly high food and energy inflation could prod the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster, and for longer, than officials currently forecast. That would slam the brakes on growth and raise the odds of recession.

Mr. Biden has repeatedly said those threats would not deter him from doing what he believed was right in Ukraine. Asked at a news conference in Spain this summer how long Americans would need to pay higher gas prices as a result of the war, Mr. Biden was blunt. “As long as it takes,” he said, “so Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine. This is a critical, critical position for the world. Here we are.”

In a news conference in Bali this month — after both surprising success in the midterms and several days of centering economic issues in conversations with foreign leaders — Mr. Biden did not specify any updates on how long that process of defeating Russia might take, and what toll it might take on the economy.

He took only five questions, none of them on economic issues.

Alan Rappeport contributed reporting.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/29/business/ukraine-russia-biden-economy.html