U.S. Will Hit Debt Limit on Thursday, Yellen Tells Congress

Despite Ms. Yellen’s warning, many analysts and policymakers believe that a deal on the debt limit will ultimately be reached before it is too late.

“Today’s notification from the Treasury Department is notable, but not cause for panic,” said Shai Akabas, the director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “It is, however, time for both parties to get serious about negotiations.”

He added, “In this time of ongoing inflation and economic anxiety, the last thing the American people need is the tumult of a back-against-the-wall debt limit fight or, much worse, a default on our obligations.”

Wall Street analysts believe that House Republicans could ultimately save face and settle on a solution that would “suspend” the debt limit to a certain date without actually raising the borrowing cap to a specific level. This tactic, which was employed by former Speaker John A. Boehner in 2013 and 2014, would give the Treasury Department the leeway to keep the government running.

“At that time, unable to secure a specific dollar increase in the debt ceiling, Boehner came up with the idea of a ‘suspension’ of the debt ceiling through a specific date,” Henrietta Treyz, the director of economic policy at Veda Partners, an investment advisory firm, wrote in a note to clients this week. “This avoided Congress voting on a net budget increase authorization and instead ceded authority to the Treasury Department to do essentially whatever it needed to do through a specific date.”

Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told reporters on Thursday that she was hopeful that lawmakers would avoid a crisis over the debt limit this year.

“The discussions of debt limits are always quite intense,” Ms. Georgieva said. “History teaches us that in the end, a solution is being found.”

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/business/economy/debt-limit-us-economy.html