Republicans Cut Taxes to Win the Midterms. It May Not Work Out.

All across the country, Republicans are campaigning on last year’s tax cuts as they try to retain control of the House and Senate. But none of them are doing so quite like Representative Mike Lawler of New York.

Mr. Lawler has made the higher cap on the state and local tax, or SALT, deduction central to his political identity. He plugs it in ads and at his campaign events. President Trump has taken to calling the congressman “Mr. SALT,” including at a rally in Mr. Lawler’s district this spring. At the Republican midterm convention in Texas last month, Mr. Lawler took to the stage to talk up his work securing the larger tax break, a contrast with the Republicans who shied away from the event and an unpopular Mr. Trump during the campaign.

“It’s not often, out of 435 members of Congress, that a member can point to something very specific that they did, that directly impacted their constituents in a really positive way,” Mr. Lawler said in an interview. “I can do that.”

Whether that pitch is convincing to voters on Nov. 3 will not only determine control of this congressional district in the lower Hudson Valley, where Mr. Trump narrowly lost to Kamala Harris in 2024. It will also inform a long-running debate about whether tax cuts can influence the outcome of an election, a crucial question as Republicans, and increasingly some Democrats, try to win votes by committing trillions of dollars to lowering taxes.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/business/salt-cap-midterm-elections.html