Markets Seesaw as the Votes Are Counted: Live Business Updates

Closer-than-expected voting results in the U.S. presidential election sent markets seesawing early on Wednesday, as global investors watched what some had expected to be a lopsided victory become an extended nail-biter with shrinking prospects for a quick resolution.

Stocks in Asia were headed for a mostly positive finish after dipping in the red. Wall Street futures started weakly positive, surged, then drifted back to where they started after investors thought better of their initial bets. Future markets were calling for mild losses in Europe at the open.

One of the biggest swings was in yields for U.S. Treasury bonds, a reliable indicator of investor nervousness. Yields fell as prices rose, indicating a greater desire to park money in a safe place.

Investors saw a clearer path on Tuesday, when they priced in a relatively quick victory for Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic candidate. A strong victory for him and his party could set the stage for a large pandemic relief spending package in Washington early next year. That could bolster the economy, fueling consumer spending and cushioning growth even as coronavirus cases surge again. It would also mean big deficits in the near term, potentially pushing longer-term interest rates higher.

But financial markets were whipsawed as traders and pundits saw early returns pointing to a close result, raising the possibility that President Trump could be re-elected, and the Senate remain in Republican control. On one hand, Mr. Trump’s low taxes and limited regulation have been popular among investors. On the other, analysts have been clear that a divided government could hurt the chances for a big spending package. Investors might also be wary that delayed vote counts could lead to a long period of uncertainty.

“You’re not seeing as large a blue wave as had been predicted early on,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, around 11 p.m. New York time.

In Japan, the Nikkei rose 1.7 percent, but other markets in the region were less ebullient after a turbulent trading day. Futures markets were predicting a 0.7 percent rise in the SP 500 when Wall Street opens later in the day.

The 10-year Treasury yield was down nearly 8 percent in Asian trading.

Among unscientific indicators, two Chinese stocks went on rides along with the polls based on their names. A company called Wisesoft, whose name in Chinese sounds like “Uncle Trump wisely wins,” jumped more than 7 percent at one point on the stock exchange in the city of Shenzhen.

Another Shenzhen stock, Zhejiang Giuseppe Garment, fell more than 1 percent earlier in the day. Its name in Chinese sounds a little like “Joe Biden” if spoken over a scratchy phone line.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/04/business/us-economy-coronavirus