Egg Shortages Are Driving Demand for Raise-at-Home Chickens

But in the near term, some of inflation’s trajectory is going to hinge on luck — not just Fed policy.

Eggs offer an example of why. While a looser labor market might slow spending and make it easier for companies like Mr. Smith’s to expand, helping demand and supply to rebalance, that alone would not be enough to solve the nation’s poultry problems. Central bankers cannot determine when commercial farms get past the avian flu.

When it comes to groceries broadly, the war in Ukraine and other uncontrollable forces — drought, crop turnout — will be key.

Jonathan Haines, a senior analyst at Gro Intelligence, which tracks global crops, said there were “glimmers of hope in the year ahead” for global food prices as supplies improved for eggs, vegetable oils, meat and other commodities. But heavy rainfall in California slowed production of things like leafy vegetables and broccoli and could add price pressures in the months ahead.

“Things are starting to ease,” Mr. Haines said of food prices. “But they’re still high relative to history.”

Whether today’s situation leads to lasting changes in how people procure their eggs remains to be seen. The Chicago Roo Crew, which rehouses unwanted hens and roosters, fears that today’s spike in chick purchases could leave people dumping adult birds later.

“We’re incredibly worried about this right now,” said Julia Magnus, a co-founder of the group. There was a spike in “dumped birds” after early pandemic buying, and the group is “still dealing with the aftermath.”

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/business/economy/inflation-chickens-egg-prices.html