Lac-Saint-Jean, a riding north of Quebec City in the Saguenay\u2013Lac-Saint-Jean region, was first won by Lebel in a 2007 byelection\u00a0when the riding was known as Roberval\u2013Lac-Saint-Jean.<\/p>\n
Lebel has since been re-elected three times, most recently in 2015. But his share of the vote in that election fell by nine points. With 33.3 per cent of ballots cast, Lebel just narrowly defeated the NDP’s Gis\u00e8le Dallaire, who captured 28.5 per cent of the vote.<\/p>\n
The Bloc and Liberal candidates trailed with 18.4 per cent of the vote apiece.<\/p>\n
But with Quebec now showing some of the most volatile poll numbers in the country, the riding could be a toss-up whenever the byelection is called \u2014\u00a0and all four parties will have something to prove.<\/p>\n
Scheer’s first real test?<\/h2>\n
Lac-Saint-Jean\u00a0might prove a real challenge for Scheer. It won’t be his only electoral test, however, as a byelection\u00a0will be needed to replace\u00a0Rona\u00a0Ambrose in\u00a0the Alberta riding of Sturgeon River\u2013Parkland.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But that is\u00a0a Conservative stronghold. In Lac-Saint-Jean, Scheer will be tasked with retaining a close seat in a province that helped deliver him the party’s leadership<\/a>.<\/p>\n Lebel was a former mayor of the town of Roberval within the riding and his candidacy was instrumental in the party’s 2007 win there. Since 2011,\u00a0Lebel has been the sole Conservative MP in the Saguenay\u2013Lac-Saint-Jean region.<\/p>\n His decline in support in 2015 \u2014 when the Conservatives marginally increased their share of the vote province-wide \u2014 should be of concern for the party.\u00a0Failing to hold the seat would not bode well for Scheer’s potential to make further gains for the Conservatives in the province.<\/p>\n The Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois\u00a0once dominated the Saguenay\u2013Lac-Saint-Jean, a traditional heartland of\u00a0the sovereignty movement. But the party was shut out in the region in 2011 and 2015.<\/p>\n Lac-Saint-Jean was held by the Bloc between 1993 and 2007 and three of the region’s five seats are currently held by the provincial Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois. These roots would seem to make the riding an attractive one for Ouellet, who took over the Bloc’s leadership in March.<\/p>\n Ouellet does not hold a seat in the House of Commons but still sits in Quebec’s National Assembly as an independent, representing a riding south of Montreal. The province holds its next election in the fall of 2018, and Ouellet says she will finish her term. In the meantime, she is splitting her time between Quebec City and Ottawa.<\/p>\n In a press conference Monday, Ouellet said she would not run in Lac-Saint-Jean,\u00a0as someone from the region should run for the Bloc instead.<\/p>\n Other considerations, including the struggles the Bloc might have in paying their leader a salary to replace what Ouellet currently receives as an MNA, could be at play.<\/p>\n If Ouellet finishes her term in the National Assembly and does not run for re-election provincially, she will be owed a “transition allowance,”<\/a>\u00a0a payout MNAs get from the province if they complete their term and either decide not to run or are defeated. \u00a0As Ouellet was once a PQ minister, she receives more than other MNAs, about $125,000. She will not receive this allowance if she resigns her seat before the next provincial election.<\/p>\nOuellet\u00a0not planning to try for federal seat<\/h2>\n
![\"Lac-Saint-Jean](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4168178.1497905839!\/fileImage\/httpImage\/image.png_gen\/derivatives\/original_300\/lac-saint-jean-2015-results.png\")
<\/p>\nLiberal-NDP swing in Quebec<\/h2>\n