{"id":78732,"date":"2017-06-06T14:20:22","date_gmt":"2017-06-06T14:20:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/usa.timesofnews.com\/?p=78732"},"modified":"2017-06-06T14:20:22","modified_gmt":"2017-06-06T14:20:22","slug":"theresa-mays-u-k-election-gamble-now-looks-like-risky-bet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/usa.timesofnews.com\/breaking-news\/political\/theresa-mays-u-k-election-gamble-now-looks-like-risky-bet.html","title":{"rendered":"Theresa May’s U.K. election gamble now looks like risky bet"},"content":{"rendered":"

When British Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election for June 8, she was likely planning to capitalize on the weakness of her opposition, while also giving her party a larger majority\u00a0to better negotiate the U.K.’s exit from the European Union.<\/p>\n

But the campaign has not gone according to plan.<\/p>\n

May started the\u00a0campaign with an 18-point lead<\/a> over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party and looked set to give herself more wiggle room in Parliament than the narrow majority won by her predecessor, David Cameron, in 2015.<\/p>\n

\"UK<\/p>\n

Most of that\u00a0lead\u00a0has disappeared. In surveys conducted by eight pollsters in the last week, the Conservatives have averaged 43.3 per cent support against Labour’s 36.8 per cent, shrinking the margin between the two parties to just 6.5 points \u2014 nearly identical to the 6.3-point edge by which the Conservatives won two years ago.<\/p>\n

Since 2015, this represents an increase of about six points for both the Tories and Labour, largely at the expense of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP).<\/p>\n

After the Leave victory in last year’s Brexit referendum, the anti-EU UKIP\u00a0has lacked\u00a0direction and a suitable replacement for former party leader Nigel Farage.<\/p>\n

In a recent ComRes poll<\/a>, just eight per cent of Britons held a favourable opinion of the new UKIP leader, Paul Nuttall.<\/p>\n

At 4.4 per cent support, the UKIP has dropped more than eight points and fallen behind the Liberal Democrats, who stand at 7.8 per cent. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has also taken a hit, but is still poised to win most of the seats\u00a0in Scotland.<\/p>\n

Applying a simple uniform swing<\/a> to the 2015 results, based on where the polls stand today, gives the Conservatives about as many seats as they had at dissolution \u2014 meaning another narrow majority.<\/p>\n

Labour gains throughout campaign<\/h2>\n

Corbyn, a former Labour backbencher thrust to the party’s leadership with the support of new, left-leaning members, had led his party to historic lows as his MPs revolted and forced a second leadership vote<\/a> (that Corbyn won). With such internal turmoil roiling within the party \u2014 and Corbyn trailing May by a significant margin in personal appeal \u2014 a snap\u00a0election call appeared opportune for the Conservatives.<\/p>\n

But since that call, Labour has consistently made gains in popular support. The Conservatives also saw an uptick once the campaign got underway: roughly\u00a0half of those\u00a0who voted UKIP two years ago now back\u00a0the Tories.<\/p>\n

\"BRITAIN-ELECTION\/\"<\/p>\n

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has closed the gap on Theresa May. (Andrew Yates\/Reuters)<\/p>\n

Things turned against the Conservatives, however, as the campaign wore on. A botched release of the party’s platform, a calculated front-runners campaign<\/a>, and the terror attack in Manchester\u00a0have contributed to a drop in May’s support.<\/p>\n

Since the platform release and Manchester bombing, the Conservatives have dropped three points \u2014 with Labour gaining four.<\/p>\n

And though\u00a0Corbyn\u00a0is still 15 points back of May when it comes to who\u00a0is seen as the best person to be prime minister, his average score of 31 per cent in recent polls is\u00a0more than double where he started at the campaign’s outset.<\/p>\n

Opportunities for May<\/h2>\n

Nevertheless, despite Labour’s gains, the Conservatives have reasonable hopes of expanding their majority in the House of Commons.<\/p>\n

In Scotland\u00a0\u2014 hostile territory for the Conservatives over the last three decades\u00a0\u2014 the Tories are up 13 points and\u00a0ahead of Labour. The SNP, which took 50 per cent of the vote in Scotland in 2015, is down 10 points.<\/p>\n

The Conservatives are also polling ahead of Labour in Wales, won by Labour by 10 points in the last election.<\/p>\n