Just under half, or 48 per cent, said Scheer’s leadership would make them less likely to vote for the Conservatives, similar to Bernier’s score. But fully 25 per cent of respondents were unsure of how Scheer would impact their vote, 15 points higher than Bernier \u2014 suggesting that many Canadians still know little about the Saskatchewan MP.<\/p>\n
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- Andrew Scheer’s unlikely path to victory: Social conservatives and Quebec<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n
- Who is Andrew Scheer?<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
But familiarity can cut both ways. While Nanos found<\/a> that 17 per cent of Canadians thought Bernier would make the best prime minister against just four\u00a0per cent for Scheer, the poll also suggested that eight\u00a0per cent of Canadians thought Bernier would make the worst prime minister. On the worst prime minister\u00a0score, Scheer came in at just 0.1 per cent.<\/p>\n
And in Quebec, whose members gave Scheer\u00a0unexpectedly high support, Bernier was the preferred prime minister by 25 per cent to just two\u00a0per cent for Scheer. But 18 per cent of Quebeckers also thought Bernier was the worst option, making the Quebec MP a potentially high reward but also high-risk candidate.<\/p>\n
Scheer vs. Trudeau<\/h2>\n
But how Scheer compared to Bernier\u00a0in the eyes of Canadians is now academic. The real comparisons will now be made between the new leader of the opposition and the prime minister.<\/p>\n
In a poll conducted less than two weeks before Saturday’s vote, L\u00e9ger found<\/a> the Liberals leading in national voting intentions with 46 per cent support against 25 per cent for a Rona Ambrose-led Conservative Party. The Liberals enjoyed a lead over the Conservatives worth\u00a016 points in Ontario, 23 points in British Columbia\u00a0and 41 points in Quebec.<\/p>\n
![\"Conservative](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4135209.1495999536!\/cpImage\/httpImage\/image.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/conservative-convention-20170527.jpg\")
<\/p>\nAndrew Scheer, right, is congratulated by Maxime Bernier after being elected the new leader of the federal Conservative party. Bernier is better known, but so far few Canadians say Scheer would be the worst prime minister. (Frank Gunn\/Canadian Press)<\/p>\n
With Scheer\u00a0as leader of the party, however, Conservative support dropped two points to 23 per cent nationwide. The Liberal lead widened by one point in Ontario, three in Quebec and seven points in B.C. Only in the Prairies did Scheer’s leadership put the Conservatives in a better position.<\/p>\n
Bernier kept the party at 25 per cent support nationwide, but whittled the Liberals’ edge in Quebec down to 29 points.<\/p>\n
Though Scheer\u00a0did surprisingly well among Conservative Party members in Quebec, he may have more difficulty appealing to other voters in the province. Quebecers have traditionally favoured parties led by native sons over\u00a0those led by non-Quebecers, and his policies are less likely to appeal to the general population in Quebec than to the party’s rank-and-file.<\/p>\n
Having another Western Canadian \u2014 though Scheer grew up in Ontario, he represents a riding in Regina \u2014 is unlikely to boost the Conservatives’ chances significantly, as the party is already strong in the region. And party members in Alberta and Manitoba favoured Bernier over Scheer.<\/p>\n
Opportunity or problem?<\/h2>\n
In terms of experience, Scheer\u00a0has been an MP for four more years than Trudeau, though in 2019 Trudeau will have one term as prime minister under his belt. But experience is not a trump card \u2014 Trudeau was the least experienced of the major leaders in 2015. Similarly\u00a0Stephen Harper’s experience\u00a0paled in comparison to Paul Martin’s when he first won in 2006.<\/p>\n
But the lack of enthusiasm from Canadians for a Scheer-led Conservative Party in the polls should be of some concern. In hypothetical polls, Trudeau\u00a0gave the Liberals a significant boost prior to his winning the leadership in 2013. Trudeau, however, was much better known when he was first named leader than Scheer is today.<\/p>\n
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- Is Andrew Scheer the smart choice or the safe choice?<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n
- Andrew Scheer not the only winner in Conservative leadership race<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
That presents both an opportunity and a problem for the Conservatives. Opinions have yet to be formed about their new leader. In order for Scheer\u00a0to have a good shot at a historical upset in 2019, he will need to ensure those first impressions are positive ones.<\/p>\n
\n - Andrew Scheer not the only winner in Conservative leadership race<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
- Who is Andrew Scheer?<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n