Points will be awarded according to the share of votes candidates receive\u00a0in each of Canada’s 338 ridings. Unless one candidate has a majority of points, the candidate with the fewest points nationwide is eliminated\u00a0and their votes redistributed to their supporters’ next preference. This process continues until one candidate reaches\u00a0a majority.<\/p>\n
It is possible to estimate the first ballot result based on available data (fundraising, polls and endorsements). The Conservative Leadership Index, the latest edition of which can be found at the bottom of this article, does just that.<\/p>\n
Where the vote will go after the\u00a0first ballot is more difficult to figure, but it is possible to get an\u00a0indication of voters’ preferences from fundraising data.<\/p>\n
A significant proportion of donors contributed funds to more than one candidate, suggesting that they are likely to rank these candidates highly on their ballot \u2014 and presumably like-minded voters will do the same.<\/p>\n
Scheer, Bernier with second choice potential<\/h2>\n
An analysis of fundraising between Jan. 1 and Mar. 31 shows that Bernier\u00a0and Scheer share the\u00a0most donors with the most other candidates.<\/p>\n
Bernier\u00a0topped the list among donors to Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Erin O’Toole and Lisa Raitt. Scheer was the top candidate among donors shared with Bernier, Chris Alexander and Rick Peterson, while O’Toole was first amongst Andrew Saxton’s donors.<\/p>\n
Bernier and Scheer ranked highly among other candidates as well.<\/p>\n
The most significant overlap\u00a0was between Trost and Lemieux, two social conservatives. Fully 41 per cent of Trost’s shared donors contributed to Lemieux’s campaign, while 28 per cent of Lemieux’s\u00a0shared donors contributed to Trost’s.<\/p>\n
It is possible that some of these shared contributors paid fees for fundraising events attended by multiple candidates, though the data does not suggest that those donors\u00a0represent a significant proportion of the whole.<\/p>\n
Less than 15 per cent of donors who contributed to the campaigns of Bernier, Chong and Leitch\u00a0gave money to another candidate. Contributors to Blaney\u00a0or Trost were the most likely to have given to someone else, representing 42 and 37 per cent of these two candidate’s donors, respectively.<\/p>\n
Going ballot by ballot<\/h2>\n
Using this data to estimate the preferential ballot\u00a0and potential dropped ballots (if voters only mark their first choice), as well as combining it with the Conservative Leadership Index<\/a> and an analysis of each candidate’s distribution of support by riding<\/a>, it is possible to simulate how the vote could break down ballot by ballot.<\/p>\n This is not a prediction of the outcome, but rather an illustration of what implications\u00a0the preferential ballot could have on deciding the winner.<\/p>\n The first few ballots do not have a big impact. Combined, Deepak Obhrai, Peterson, Alexander and Saxton\u00a0are estimated to take just 4.6 per cent of the points. By the sixth ballot (assuming Kevin O’Leary, whose name will be on the ballot, is among the first to drop off) no remaining candidate could be more than a\u00a0point further ahead.<\/p>\n The seventh ballot, which in this scenario redistributes\u00a0Blaney’s 2.9 points, primarily boosts Lemieux and Leitch. If Blaney performs better in Quebec, however, he could find himself surviving beyond the seventh\u00a0ballot.<\/p>\n On the eighth ballot, Trost sends most of his\u00a0points\u00a0to Lemieux\u00a0and a significant proportion to Scheer. This pushes Lemieux past Chong in the rankings and narrows the margin between Scheer and Bernier. Raitt\u00a0is eliminated.<\/p>\n On the ninth ballot, Bernier, Scheer and O’Toole receive a bump from Raitt\u00a0\u2014 but Chong does not get\u00a0enough of a boost to push him past Lemieux and save him from elimination.<\/p>\n On the 10th ballot, Bernier and O’Toole gain the most from Chong’s\u00a0ouster, Lemieux and Leitch the least. Along with Raitt’s\u00a0elimination this could be an\u00a0opportunity for O’Toole to move ahead of Scheer. But both are still well behind Bernier who, at\u00a032 points, remains\u00a0far from a majority.<\/p>\n Lemieux drops off and on the 11th ballot a big share of his support goes to Scheer, allowing him to further close the gap on Bernier and widen the margin between him and O’Toole. It is possible that Lemieux could instead give a greater boost\u00a0to Bernier, who has emphasized during his campaign that under his leadership social conservatives would be free to express their views.<\/p>\n With the elimination of Leitch\u00a0on the 12th ballot, Bernier\u00a0still leads with 38.4 points, but Scheer (33.6 points) and O’Toole (28 points)\u00a0are not far behind.<\/p>\n Leitch’s voters could play a decisive role. They are a large enough group that they could decide who\u00a0between Scheer and O’Toole goes head-to-head against Bernier. If a big enough number of them instead opt for\u00a0Bernier, his win would be all but assured.<\/p>\n In this simulation it is O’Toole who drops off the 13th and final ballot. The fundraising data suggests that Bernier and Scheer split his voters, giving Bernier the win with 52.9 points to 47.1 points for Scheer. Bernier’s\u00a0wide advantage in Quebec, where he wins 74 per cent of the points, gives him the victory.<\/p>\n But this simulation presents\u00a0a close enough margin \u2014 and alternative turning points \u2014 for it to easily go Scheer’s way\u00a0(or O’Toole’s,\u00a0if he is the last man standing with Bernier). In order to win in this simulation, Scheer would need to take 60 per cent of O’Toole’s\u00a0points. That is achievable. Bernier would need a bigger margin by the penultimate ballot to hold off a consolidation of Scheer’s and O’Toole’s voters.<\/p>\n It would not take much else to change the outcome. Greater support for and from Lemieux and Trost could put Scheer in a better position by the final ballots. O’Toole could over-achieve with significant\u00a0support from Raitt’s and Chong’s voters.\u00a0With a better first ballot result or more second choice preferences throughout the count, Bernier could put himself out of reach earlier on \u2014 maybe even winning before the 13th ballot.<\/p>\n![\"Simulation](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4125606.1495311127!\/fileImage\/httpImage\/image.png_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/simulation-of-conservative-leadership-ballot.png\")
<\/p>\nEndless possibilities<\/h2>\n
![\"Conservative](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4125608.1495311177!\/fileImage\/httpImage\/image.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/conservative-leadership-index-may-22.jpg\")
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