Front-runners say that. Complacent voters don’t turn out for foregone conclusions. Better to motivate supporters with the fear\u00a0of losing.<\/p>\n
But that\u00a0fear may be\u00a0legitimate in this race.<\/p>\n
‘Unpollable’<\/h2>\n
Public opinion researchers\u00a0have tried to predict the outcome by contacting Conservatives off the party’s\u00a0evolving membership list, surveying party donors\u00a0or tapping people who call themselves Conservatives in\u00a0national surveys.<\/p>\n
But even sampling the final membership list has its difficulties.\u00a0Several camps say it’s missing accurate\u00a0phone numbers and e-mail addresses. Many\u00a0eligible voters are unreachable.<\/p>\n
“It might be unpollable,” said Darell Fowlie, who’s working on Lisa Raitt’s campaign.<\/p>\n
![\"Conservative](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4113554.1494624662!\/cpImage\/httpImage\/image.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/conservative-leadership-raitt-20170510.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Lisa Raitt’s candidacy has been hindered by her lack of French. But the former cabinet minister has strong support in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. (Sean Kilpatrick\/Canadian Press)<\/p>\n
That might be an unsurprising opinion\u00a0from a campaign that’s behind.\u00a0And knocking pollsters for their\u00a0predictions\u00a0is a familiar political pastime.<\/p>\n
But Fowlie has a point. Each constituency carries equal weight, but conducting riding-level polls in all 338 would cost\u00a0hundreds of thousands of dollars.<\/p>\n
“No one’s doing that, I can tell you that much,” said Michael Diamond, who works on\u00a0Kellie Leitch’s\u00a0team.<\/p>\n
Conservatives who provided their phone numbers have been bombarded with calls from the party, pollsters and rival camps. Some report as many as three or four calls a night. Have some just stopped answering?<\/p>\n
Fowlie\u00a0said\u00a0he looked into the methodology of one\u00a0automated poll that had Chris Alexander unusually high, he thought. Candidates were suggested in alphabetical order (“Press 1 for Chris Alexander, Press 2 for\u00a0Maxime\u00a0Bernier…”), and he wondered if some\u00a0respondents just hit one to get off the phone.<\/p>\n
The number of\u00a0eligible voters<\/a>\u00a0in this race, over 259,000, significantly exceeded expectations. But the party won’t confirm\u00a0how many memberships each candidate submitted.<\/p>\n Strategists across several campaigns suggest as many as 80,000\u00a0signed up independently, meaning they’re free agents.<\/p>\n Then there’s the 30,000-plus that\u00a0O’Leary’s team claimed to have signed up. Will they follow\u00a0his suggestion to back Bernier? Or will they just not vote?<\/p>\n Andrew Scheer’s camp believes that he’ll place second on the first ballot and has the best chance of beating Bernier thanks to his strong second- and third-choice support. (Nathan Denette\/Canadian Press)<\/p>\n “Now that this race has been thrown open by his departure, members of the party can now vote with their hearts,” said Melanie Paradis, who’s working for\u00a0Erin O’Toole. “They don’t have to feel that they have to vote for one particular person that they want to go up against O’Leary.”<\/p>\n Rival camps concede that Bernier\u00a0appeals to many\u00a0new members. But several feel long-time party members are more likely to vote.<\/p>\n Only one in three cast a vote in the 2004 Conservative leadership race.<\/p>\n “We need to have a higher turnout than last time,” Bernier has said.<\/p>\n Early indications of how many\u00a0ballots have been returned\u00a0aren’t\u00a0expected until Monday, when officials start opening envelopes and checking voter\u00a0names off the master list at the\u00a0Deloitte\u00a0Canada offices in Vaughan, Ont.<\/p>\n “Certain camps probably have more motivated bases than others,” said Chisholm Poitier, a Michael Chong spokesman.<\/p>\n Those backing Chong, Bernier and Leitch, in particular, may turn out for policy or ideological reasons, he said.<\/p>\n “I kind of\u00a0suspect the bases of all the other camps would have lower turnouts,” Poitier said. “I don’t sense the enthusiasm or the excitement in some of those camps.”<\/p>\n Michael Chong has staked out unique policy ground in the race, including being the only candidate to champion a carbon tax, something Conservatives campaigned against in the past. (Fred Chartrand\/Canadian Press)<\/p>\n Issue-oriented campaigns\u00a0can be polarizing, however.<\/p>\n “Once you become the focus, people either like it or they don’t,” Andrew Scheer’s\u00a0strategist Hamish Marshall said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Scheer and\u00a0O’Toole\u00a0have the most\u00a0endorsements from\u00a0caucus members. Their campaigns are seen as\u00a0friendly to the Conservative\u00a0establishment.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n When the race began last year, party memberships\u00a0had dropped below 100,000. Newcomers, if they turn out, could outnumber the party’s base, and that makes things\u00a0tough to predict.<\/p>\n![\"Conservative](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4113550.1494624594!\/cpImage\/httpImage\/image.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/conservative-leadership-scheer-20170511.jpg\")
<\/p>\nIssues motivate, but polarize<\/h2>\n
![\"Conservative](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4113558.1494624755!\/cpImage\/httpImage\/image.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/conservative-leadership-chong-20170507.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
![\"Conservative](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4113566.1494624969!\/cpImage\/httpImage\/image.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/conservative-leadership-20170417.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Erin](\"https:\/\/i.cbc.ca\/1.4112493.1494606575!\/fileImage\/httpImage\/image.JPG_gen\/derivatives\/original_620\/erin-o-toole.JPG\")
<\/p>\n