Why Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal Is Unlikely to Lower Fuel Costs

Diesel prices in the United States are hovering near record highs — and a deal President Trump announced last week to increase Russian fuel exports is unlikely to lower them significantly anytime soon.

The amount of diesel Russia could supply under that agreement is much lower than what the country was exporting this time last year and constitutes a small proportion of the diesel supply the world has lost because of Mr. Trump’s war with Iran, energy analysts said. And it is not clear that Russia could even deliver all the fuel the president and Russian offiicials have promised.

The numbers are stark.

From July through September of 2025, Russia exported around 693,000 barrels of diesel a day, according to SP Global Energy. For the same period this year, the country exported around 140,000 barrels a day. Now, Mr. Trump and a Russian deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, say that the country would export 300,000 metric tons of diesel in October, or roughly 75,000 barrels a day when stretched across a month.

The numbers under Mr. Trump’s deal with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia look even more meager when compared with the diesel that the world is no longer getting from the Middle East since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on Feb. 28. Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East exported 809,000 fewer barrels of diesel every day from July through the end of September, compared with the same period in 2025, according to SP Global data.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/business/energy-environment/trump-russia-diesel-prices.html