AARP Projects 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.6%

Government inflation data released on Friday is pointing toward a 3.6 percent increase in Social Security benefits next year.

The official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, known as the COLA, is expected to be announced on Oct. 14, when the government releases September inflation figures. The COLA is determined using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The index values for July, August and September are averaged to produce the official COLA.

With two of those three figures now released, AARP forecast the 3.6 percent COLA on Friday. If that projection holds, the COLA would be the largest since 2023, when the inflation adjustment was 3.2 percent. Some experts think the current surge in oil prices could nudge the final figure a bit higher. This year’s COLA was 2.8 percent.

The CPI-W reflects price changes for a group of goods and services bought by working people, and many experts argue that it doesn’t accurately measure the unique price pressures facing seniors — especially rising health care costs. Medicare premium increases have a direct impact on COLA amounts. The Part B premium usually is deducted from Social Security benefits, so the dollar amount of that change reduces COLA amounts.

Article source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/business/economy/social-security-cola.html